UFC Fight Night 212: Jonathan Martinez vs Cub Swanson Picks, Predictions, Odds

Cub Swanson and Jonathan Martinez fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 212 at the UFC Apex. Swanson enters this fight with a 28-12 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by knockout. Martinez enters this fight with a 16-4 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout.

Swanson has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a December win over Darren Elkins. Swanson is averaging 4.66 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Swanson is averaging 1.08 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Swanson is coming off a knockout win at UFC Vegas 45 that earned performance of the night. In the victory, Swanson landed 18 total strikes. At nearly 39 years old, Swanson has shown there’s still something left in that tank, as there were questions at times during that 4-fight losing streak. Swanson is known for his ground game, scrambling and can hold his own on the canvas despite being submitted 7 times. Swanson is also an accurate striker with obvious knockout power and is well conditioned that’s helped him win 11 of his 14 career decisions. There’s a lot to like about Swanson and his toughness, but his takedown defense is still questionable at best, and 5 of his last 8 losses have been submissions. Swanson is still one of the more entertaining fighters in the sport and has won bonuses in 2 of his last 4 bouts. This will be Swanson’s 12th career fight in Nevada.

Martinez has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off a May win over Vince Morales. Martinez is averaging 4.72 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Martinez is averaging 0.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Martinez is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 206 where he landed 88 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. Martinez is now 7-3 under the UFC banner and looks for 4 straight wins for the first time since starting 7-0 for his career. Martinez is a sneaky, athletic fighter who does his best work standing up, as he has power in his hands and throws elbows and flying knees out of nowhere. A bit unpredictable on his feet, Martinez started his pro career with 5 straight knockouts. A blue belt in BJJ, Martinez also has some scrambling ability on the canvas and entered the UFC producing back-to-back armbar finishes. Martinez has never been submitted in his career. This will be Martinez’s sixth career fight in Nevada. 

Martinez should be the rightful favorite in this bout as he’s the safer bet given his youth, his activeness and simply his ability to finish a fight out of nowhere. Martinez’s style is hard to prepare for, given he can do a bit of everything. With that said, there’s something about getting Swanson as an underdog that’s hard to turn down. Swanson is a grizzly veteran who competes, gives himself a chance in the octagon, and he still lands accurate and powerful shots. Swanson will be the crowd favorite in this bout, and I don’t think anybody would be surprised if he does just enough to grind his way to victory. 

Swanson is a competitor, and that’s all you want in your MMA underdogs. I’ll back the plus money.