UFC Fight Night 212: Viviane Araujo vs Alexa Grasso Picks, Predictions, Odds

Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 212 at the UFC Apex. Grasso enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by decision. Araujo enters this fight with a 11-3 record and has won 36 percent of her fights by decision.

Grasso has won 7 of her last 10 fights and is coming off a March win over Joanne Wood. Grasso is averaging 4.92 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Grasso is averaging 0.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Grasso is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN 33 where she landed 50 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. It was Grasso’s first career submission victory, and she now looks for 4 straight wins for the first time since starting 9-0 for her career. Grasso is a standup striker at heart with a boxing background, terrific accuracy, technique, and toughness. She does a great job of standing in the middle of the octagon and trading with her opponent. Grasso has 4 career knockouts and has never been knocked out herself. From a pure boxing standpoint, Grasso is up there as one of the best on the women’s side. The challenge for Grasso is to tap into the other areas of her game and improve in the clinch and on the canvas. A purple belt in BJJ, we’ve seen Grasso struggle in the past in the clinch, and her takedown defense could also improve. This will be Grasso’s third career fight in Nevada.

Araujo has won 6 of her last 8 fights and is coming off a May win over Andrea Lee. Araujo is averaging 4.76 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Araujo is averaging 2.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Araujo is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 36 where she landed 96 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. Araujo is now 5-2 under the UFC banner and has seen each of her last 6 fights go the distance. Araujo is a black belt in Luta Livre and BJJ, and striking and takedown defense are probably her best traits. Araujo picks her shots well and throws a good jab, and she has 3 career knockouts. Araujo can improve her grappling, but at almost 36 years old and with a late start, she’s a fairly balanced fighter. Araujo has never been submitted in her career. This will be Araujo’s fourth career fight in Nevada. 

There’s a path for Araujo in this bout given her higher level of BJJ, takedown defense and willingness to simply dabble in her grappling. With that said, Grasso is the younger, more athletic and much more proven fighter at this stage. There’s also not many women I put above Grasso with her boxing ability. While she may not have pure knockout pop, Grasso is accurate and smart on the feet, and it’s helped her win 9 of her 11 career decisions. I’ve always been a fan of Grasso.

Kind of steep with the juice, but I have Grasso winning this fight, and I’ll take her by decision to shave the price.