UFC on ABC 3: Amanda Lemos vs Michelle Waterson Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michelle Waterson and Amanda Lemos fight Saturday in UFC on ABC 3 at the UBS Arena. Waterson enters this fight with a 18-9 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by submission. Lemos enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by knockout.

Waterson has split her last 8 fights and is coming off a May (2021) loss to Marina Rodriguez. Waterson is averaging 3.57 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Waterson is averaging 1.40 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 32 percent. Waterson is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN 24 where she landed 100 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. It was Waterson’s fliyweight debut, and she’s in need of a victory, with losses in 3 of her last 4 fights. At now 36 years old, Waterson has really killed any momentum for a possible title shot. Waterson is a super athletic fighter with a black belt in karate, brown belt in BJJ and a background in kickboxing, so leg kicks are a huge part of her game, and she’s extremely quick and accurate. Waterson doesn’t have a lot of power in her hands, but she’s flexible and can land a shot out of nowhere. Waterson is also highly successful with her takedown attempts and has 9 career submission victories, and he has solid takedown defense. This will be Waterson’s first career fight in New York.

Lemos has won 5 of her last 6 fights and is coming off an April loss to Jéssica Andrade. Lemos is averaging 5.14 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Lemos is averaging 1.22 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Lemos is coming off a submission loss at UFC Fight Night 205 where she landed 7 total strikes. Lemos drops to 5-2 under the UFC banner and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in her career. Lemos has completely turned her career around since her suspension, as she switched to strawweight and has become far more dominant. Lemos is able to use her size and strength to her advantage in this weight class, and her cardio has held up better as well. Lemos is a power striker who started her career with 4 straight knockouts, and you could argue she’s the scariest power striker in this class. At 35 years old, Lemos has completely changed the way many view her over these last couple years. This will be Lemos’ first career fight in New York.

I’ve always had a soft spot for Waterson, and she’s somebody I’ve rooted for over the years. Despite the struggles lately, she’s still super talented and capable of landing something here to get the victory. However, Waterson hasn’t looked great lately and Lemos is the bigger, stronger fighter with a reach advantage and a tricky southpaw stance. This is a fight where Lemos could walk down Waterson and make life very difficult for The Karate Hottie.

I’ll take Lemos to win inside distance to shave down the heavy juice.