UFC on ABC 3: Charles Jourdain vs Shane Burgos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Shane Burgos and Charles Jourdain fight Saturday in UFC on ABC 3 at the UBS Arena. Burgos enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 36 percent of his fights by knockout. Jourdain enters this fight with a 13-4 record and has won 62 percent of his fights by knockout.

Burgos has won 7 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a November win over Billy Quarantillo. Burgos is averaging 7.95 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Burgos is averaging 0.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Burgos is coming off a decision win at UFC 268 where he landed 232 total strikes and 67 percent of his significant strikes. Burgos is now 7-3 under the UFC banner, and he’s now won 4 of his 5 career decisions. Burgos now looks to win back to back fights for the first time since 2019. Burgos is a volume striker who lets his hands go and doesn’t mind standing and banging. It’s no surprise, 7 of Burgos’ 17 career fights have ended in knockout. Burgos also has terrific takedown defense, and he has 5 career submission victories, but 4 of those came in his first 5 pro fights. Burgos has never been submitted in his career. This will be Burgos’ seventh career fight in New York, his birth state.

Jourdain has won 8 of his last 12 fights and is coming off an April win over Lando Vannata. Jourdain is averaging 5.60 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Jourdain is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Jourdain is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 205 where he landed 5 total strikes. Jourdain is now 4-3-1 under the UFC banner and has a chance to win 3 straight fights for the first time since 2018-19. Jourdain is an exciting, athletic fighter who has a reckless mentality standing up and is very unpredictable with his strikes. Jourdain likes to mix in combinations, and he has impressive cardio and can keep up a big work rate for three rounds. A black belt in BJJ, Jourdain has finished 12 of his 13 victories and 3 of his 4 losses have come by decision. Jourdain has never been knocked out in his career. This will be Jourdain’s second career fight in New York.

Jourdain and his ability to switch stances and his reckless attack gives him a fighting chance to land something and pull off the upset. However, Burgos will be in his comfort zone here in a stand-up fight, and he has a 6-inch reach advantage. Jourdain will have to go through some traffic to get to Burgos, and that’s not really ideal, to be honest. This is also a home fight for Burgos, and he’s 6-0 for his career when fighting in New York.

Give me Burgos and the somewhat reasonable line.