UFC on ESPN 39: Rafael Fiziev vs Rafael dos Anjos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 39 at the UFC Apex. Dos Anjos enters this fight with a 31-13 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by decision. Fiziev enters this fight with a 11-1 record and has won 64 percent of his fights by knockout.

dos Anjos has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a March win over Renato Moicano. Dos Anjos is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Dos Anjos is averaging 1.99 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Dos Anjos is coming off a decision win at UFC 272 where he landed 179 total strikes and produced 5 takedowns. Dos Anjos looks for 3 straight wins for the first time since 2017, and he’s seen his last 4 fights end in decisions. Dos Anjos is one of the more polished strikers in the division, as he mixes in his punches and kicks well, and he packs a serious ground and pound on the canvas. Dos Anjos’ left kick to the body and right hook are 2 of his best attacks on the feet. With a polished boxing approach and a black belt in BJJ, dos Anjos can hold his own wherever the fight goes, but he’s much more effective on his feet. Dos Anjos does have a pressure style to his game, and he has 10 career submission wins. Dos Anjos has never been submitted despite 13 career losses. This will be dos Anjos’ seventh career fight in Nevada.

Fiziev has won 5 straight fights and is coming off a December win over Brad Riddell. Fiziev is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Fiziev is averaging 0.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Fiziev is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ESPN 31 that earned performance of the night honors. It’s the fourth straight fight that’s earned performance bonuses, and he’s produced knockouts in 2 of his last 3 fights. Fiziev is now 5-1 under the UFC banner, and 3 of those wins came by decision. A blue belt in BJJ, Fiziev is a fighter who relies heavily on his Muay Thai and kickboxing background, and he has some incredible finishes on his feet due to his athleticism and speed. Heck, we just saw it in his last bout. Fiziev has good defense on the feet as well, and above average head movement. While Fiziev wants a fight standing up and has shown impressive takedown defense, he does have a submission victory on his small pro resume and has displayed a confident ground and pound attack as well. This will be Fiziev’s third career fight in Nevada.

Dos Anjos and the big plus money is worth a look given his experience and the fact he’s a polished fighter who has proven himself time and time again. Dos Anjos would have the edge in the clinch or on the ground here. With that said, Fiziev is on quite a role right now, and his athleticism and youth gives him key edges here. Dos Anjos isn’t getting any younger as he approaches 38 years old, and he’s going to struggle with the speed and quickness of these younger fighters.

Give me Fiziev for a sixth straight win.