UFC Vegas 12: Thiago Moises vs. Bobby Green Picks, Odds, and Predictions
2020-10-31 22:30:00 EDT
Bobby Green and Thiago Moises fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 12 at the UFC APEX.
Bobby Green enters this fight with a 27-10-1 record and has won 37 percent of his fights by decision. Green has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a September win over Alan Patrick. Green is averaging 5.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Green is averaging 1.53 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Green is coming off a decision victory at UFC Fight Night 177 where he landed 109 total strikes, 64 percent of his significant strikes and produced four takedowns. Green is now fighting for the fourth time since June and looks for four straight victories for the first time since 2013-14. Green comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he has a blue belt in BJJ. Green seems more polished as a striker, as he’s heavy handed, has good ground and pound and closes the distance well standing up. Green also has nine career submission victories, as he has decent scrambling skills and three of those victories have come by the guillotine choke. Green has also shown great cardio and each of his last eight fights have gone the distance. This will be Green’s eighth career fight in Las Vegas.
Thiago Moises enters this fight with a 13-4 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by submission. Moises has won seven of his last 10 fights and is coming off a May win over Michael Johnson. Moises is averaging 2.68 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Moises is averaging 1.10 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Moises was expected to fight at UFC Fight Night 176, but he was forced to back out due to testing positive for COVID-19. Moises is coming off a second round submission victory at UFC Fight Night 171, a fight he was losing up to that point. Moises is now 2-2 under the UFC banner and looks for back-to-back wins for the first time in two years. Moises is a tricky southpaw who isn’t afraid to let his hands go on his feet and will thitem a bunch of combinations and has three career knockouts. Moises is a black belt in BJJ and has six career submission victories, and three of those wins have come via armbar. Moises fights well off his back and can go from being in a rough spot to end in a position to finish a fight in seconds. Moises has never been finished in his career with all four of his losses coming in decisions. This will be Moises’ second career fight in Las Vegas.
Moises has the better BJJ and would be a decent favorite if this fight were to go to the ground. However, Green is the more polished stand up striker who lands the harder shots, is far more accurate and he has above-average takedown defense. Green has also fought three times already this year and has looked great every time he stepped in the ring. Green is clearly feeling himself right now and is out to prove a point to the rest of the division. I’m not sure you want to step in front of that right now.
Give me Green, and I’ll take him in a decision to shave down the price.
