UFC Vegas 51: Belal Muhammad vs Vicente Luque Picks, Predictions, Odds

Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 51 at the UFC Apex. Luque enters this fight with a 21-7-1 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by knockout. Muhammad enters this fight with a 20-3 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by decision.

Luque has won 10 of his last 11 fights and is coming off an August win over Michael Chiesa. Luque is averaging 5.65 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Luque is averaging 0.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Luque is coming off a submission win at UFC 265 that earned fight of the night honors. Luque has produced D’Arce chokes in his last two fights and has seen six of his last eight fights produce bonuses. Luque has produced finishes in each of his last four fights. Luque is a standup striker who doesn’t stop letting his hands go and has true knockout power, as we’re seeing more and more these days. Luque has some of the cleanest boxing technique in the sport and attacks the head at a high percentage, spending little time working the body or mixing in leg kicks. Luque is simply coming in to put guys to sleep, and he has a high success rate when he gets the style of fight he wants. Luque does have eight submission wins and black belts in BJJ and Luta Livre, so he can hold his own on the ground. This will be Luque’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Muhammad has won eight of his last 10 fights and is coming off a December win over Stephen Thompson. He is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Muhammad is averaging 2.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Muhammad is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 45 where he landed 171 total strikes and 61 percent of his significant strikes. Muhammad hasn’t lost a fight since his bout against UFC Fight Night 143. Muhammad has proven to be a balanced fighter who does some of his best work on his feet. He also has a terrific gas tank that’s helped him win 15 of his 17 career decisions. Muhammad usually always gets the fight where he wants and it, and he does a great job of controlling the pace and not allowing his opponent to dictate much. A purple belt in BJJ, Muhammad may not overwhelm his opponent, but he knows how to win and doesn’t allow his opponent to get comfortable. This will be Muhammad’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Both of these guys are on quite a hot streak, and you could make a case for either fighter, but Luque is the safer bet for obvious reasons. Not only is Luque getting better and more comfortable on the ground, but he’s the more power striker, the bigger fighter of the two and the better finisher. Muhammad is tough to take down and usually gets the nod when playing the long game, but he’s going to go through some shots to get this fight where he wants it, and that’s the dangerous part of this bout for him.

Luque should pad another victory here, and the juice is reasonable.