Aces vs Mercury Prediction 10-3-25 WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet Friday in WNBA Finals Game 1 at the Michelob ULTRA Arena. Here’s a Aces vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Aces vs Mercury Pick.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury beat the Lynx in 5 games and are in the finals for the first time since 2021. The Mercury have won 15 of their last 24 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 80.3 points on 41.1 percent shooting and allowing 75.9 points on 40.2 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds, while Satou Sabally is averaging 17.9 points and 7.4 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and Sami Whitcomb is grabbing 2.6 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 31.4 percent from beyond the arc and 81.3 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 27.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38 rebounds per game.

Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview

The Las Vegas Aces beat the Fever in 5 games and are in the finals for the fourth time in the last 6 years. The Aces have won 21 of their last 23 games.

The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 87 points on 48.5 percent shooting and allowing 81.6 points on 43.6 percent shooting. A’ja Wilson is averaging 26 points and 9.1 rebounds, while Jackie Young is averaging 20.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. Chelsea Gray is the third double-digit scorer and NaLyssa Smith is dishing 0.5 assists. The Las Vegas Aces are shooting 39.2 percent from beyond the arc and 78.7 percent from the free throw line. The Las Vegas Aces are allowing 36.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 28.4 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 3, 2025

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won 14 of their last 15 home games.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last 11 Friday games as road underdogs.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 13 Friday road games.
• The Aces have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games against Western Conference opponents.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Aces have lost each of their last three day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last seven road games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Aces’ last six home games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four WNBA Finals games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 2+ steals in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest winning streak in the WNBA this season (3 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest home winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).

Aces vs Mercury Injury Report

The Aces don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Aces vs Mercury Prediction

The Aces are going to be favored at home, and they’ve not only won 3 of the 4 games against the Mercury this season, they’ve won 8 of the last 10 meetings. However, as I’ve said a lot this season and from the start of the playoffs, I’m going to be on the Mercury whenever I can get them as an underdog. Player for player, the Mercury are possibly the most talented team in the league. It’s just a matter of not taking plays off and getting after it defensively.

The Mercury are playing their best ball of the season right now, and they’ve outright won 7 of their last 12 games as an underdog. The Aces barely got by a depleted Fever squad that also lost Kelsey Mitchell late in game 5. I expect the Mercury to win this series, so I’ll gladly take them in the underdog role.