Aces vs Mercury
May 9, 2026 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Aces -8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet Saturday in WNBA action at the T-Mobile Arena. Here’s an Aces vs. Mercury Prediction. This article will include an Aces vs. Mercury Pick.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Mercury have missed the playoffs just once since 2013 and they’re coming off a finals berth. Who knows what would’ve happened if Satou Sabally didn’t get hurt.
Sabally is no longer in Phoenix, but there’s still enough here to be competitive. Alyssa Thomas is a top-five player in the league and still hungry for her first ring. Kahleah Cooper is also healthy to start the season, which wasn’t the case last year. DeWanna Bonner can still contribute despite getting up there in age. The Mercury have the names and the playmaking, but this is an older roster and the depth isn’t as strong as it used to be. Still, if the Mercury are healthy come playoff time, this will still be a tough out.
Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
The Aces looked like a team going through the motions last season but still ended up winning their third title in the last four years. The Aces open this season as the betting favorites to repeat.
Becky Hammon is still head coach and A’ja Wilson is still the best player in the world. It’s enough to give the Aces the benefit of the doubt until somebody knocks them off. The Aces also made tweaks by adding Chennedy Carter, Brianna Turner, and Stephanie Talbot. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are a strong backcourt, and Jewell Loyd continues to produce year after year. This is a gritty championship roster that probably has a stronger bench than last season. The Aces aren’t going anywhere.
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
- The Aces have won each of their last nine home games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight day games.
- The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight day games.
- The Aces have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Mercury.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
- The Aces have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 Saturday day games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Aces’ last nine day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Mercury’s last seven games has gone OVER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
- A’ja Wilson ranked 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) last season.
- Chelsea Gray recorded 2+ blocks in three consecutive appearances—the equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
- Alyssa Thomas ranked 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) last season.
- Natasha Mack ranked 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (3.0) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Las Vegas Aces ranked 1st for opponent blocks per game last season (2.6).
- The Las Vegas Aces recorded the longest winning streak in the WNBA last season (5 games).
- The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points in each of their last 29 games—the team’s longest streak since 2021.
- The Phoenix Mercury ranked 1st for bench points per game (25.5) last season.
Aces vs Mercury Injury Report
The Mercury will be without Valeriane Ayayi, Monique Akoa Makani, and Sami Whitcomb.
The Aces will be without Dana Evans due to a leg injury.
Aces vs Mercury Prediction
Another fun season opener, as it’s a rematch of the WNBA Finals. The problem here is the Mercury aren’t as good as they were last season and the Aces improved even after winning the title. The Aces have a deeper bench with their additions, while the Mercury lost Sabally and are missing a few other players for various reasons. The Aces are also 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against the Mercury. Not a fan of the big number in a season opener, but this is a spot where the Aces should be able to flex their muscle.
