Lynx vs Mercury Prediction 9-21-25 WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx meet Sunday in WNBA Second Round Game 1 at the Target Center. Here’s a Lynx vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Lynx vs Mercury Pick.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury are coming off a 3-game series win over the Liberty. The Mercury have won 13 of their last 20 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 78 points on 38.8 percent shooting and allowing 69.7 points on 35.5 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 16.3 points and 8.7 rebounds, while Satou Sabally is averaging 15.7 points and 9 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and DeWanna Bonner is grabbing 7 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 29.7 percent from beyond the arc and 84 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 25.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 39.7 rebounds per game.

Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview

The Minnesota Lynx swept the Valkyries and will play for the first time since Wednesday. The Minnesota Lynx have won 14 of their last 19 games.

The Minnesota Lynx are averaging 88 points on 48.9 percent shooting and allowing 73 points on 39 percent shooting. Napheesa Collier is averaging 22 points and 6.5 rebounds, while Kayla McBride is averaging 17.5 points and 3.5 rebounds. Natisha Hiedeman is the third double-digit scorer and Courtney Williams is dishing 5.5 assists. The Minnesota Lynx are shooting 34.6 percent from beyond the arc and 76.5 percent from the free throw line. The Minnesota Lynx are allowing 37.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32.5 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 14 games at Target Center against Lynx teams that held a winning record.
• The Lynx have won each of their last 10 home games against the Mercury.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last seven games at Target Center against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Target Center following a home win.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Mercury’s last four Semi-Finals games.
• The Lynx have lost 12 of their last 16 day games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight Semi-Finals games as underdogs.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday day games at Target Center.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last six road games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Ten of the last 11 day games between the Lynx and Mercury have gone UNDER the total points line.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Napheesa Collier ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for points per game (22.9) this season.
• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Lynx vs Mercury Injury Report

The Lynx will be without DiJonai Carrington due to a foot injury.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Lynx vs Mercury Prediction

The Lynx are the team to beat, especially at home, where they’re 21-3 SU. I expect the Lynx to be favored in pretty much every game the rest of the way. However, those who have followed me along the season know how I feel about the Mercury, a team that you can argue is the best in the league talent wise player for player.

When AT, Sabally, Copper, and Bonner are cooking, the Mercury could win the title. This team doesn’t get enough respect from oddsmakers. I said once these playoffs started that I’m grabbing the points with the Mercury whenever I can get them. So, give me the Mercury and the points.