Lynx vs Mercury Prediction 9-23-25 WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx meet Tuesday in WNBA Second Round Game 2 at the Target Center. Here’s a Lynx vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Lynx vs Mercury Pick.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury look for a win to even up the series at 1-1. The Mercury have won 13 of their last 21 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 75.8 points on 39.5 percent shooting and allowing 72.8 points on 37.9 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 16.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, while Kahleah Copper is averaging 15.8 points and 3.8 rebounds. Satou Sabally is the third double-digit scorer and Sami Whitcomb is grabbing 2.3 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 25.8 percent from beyond the arc and 85.2 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 26.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38.5 rebounds per game.

Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview

The Minnesota Lynx look to take a quick 2-0 series lead. The Minnesota Lynx have won 15 of their last 20 games.

The Minnesota Lynx are averaging 86 points on 47.2 percent shooting and allowing 71.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Napheesa Collier is averaging 20.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, while Kayla McBride is averaging 18.7 points and 4.3 rebounds. Courtney Williams is the third double-digit scorer and Natisha Hiedeman is dishing 4.3 assists. The Minnesota Lynx are shooting 33.3 percent from beyond the arc and 77.5 percent from the free throw line. The Minnesota Lynx are allowing 30.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.7 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends: September 23, 2025

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 15 games at Target Center against Lynx teams that held a winning record.
• The Lynx have won each of their last 11 home games against the Mercury.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last eight games at Target Center against Mercury teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight night games at Target Center.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Mercury’s last five Semi-Finals games.
• The Lynx have lost four of their last five night games following a home win.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five night games following a home win.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in five of the Mercury’s last six Semi-Finals games.

Total Points Facts

• Ten of the Mercury’s last 11 night games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five games between the Lynx and Mercury have gone UNDER the total points line.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Napheesa Collier ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for points per game (22.9) this season.
• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Lynx vs Mercury Injury Report

The Lynx will be without DiJonai Carrington due to a foot injury.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Lynx vs Mercury Prediction

The Lynx are going to be comfortable favorites, especially at home, but I still find value in the Mercury and the points. The Mercury were in control of game 1 for three quarters and then completely fell apart in the fourth. We saw the intenstiy the Mercury played with after dropping the first game against the Liberty.

As talented as the Lynx are, that’s now two straight games they could’ve easily lost and probably should have if we’re being honest. The Mercury have outright won 5 of their last 10 games as an underdog. There’s just too much talent on this Mercury roster to think they’re going to go down quietly.