Mercury vs Aces Prediction 10-8-25 WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury meet Wednesday in WNBA Finals Game 3 at the Mortgage Matchup Center. Here’s a Mercury vs Aces Prediction. This article will include a Mercury vs Aces Pick.

Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview

The Las Vegas Aces look to take an overwhelming 3-0 series lead. The Aces have won 23 of their last 25 games.

The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 83.6 points on 43.9 percent shooting and allowing 81.7 points on 43.7 percent shooting. A’ja Wilson is averaging 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, while Jackie Young is averaging 20.6 points and 4.8 rebounds. Chelsea Gray is the third double-digit scorer and Jewell Loyd is dishing 0.8 assists. The Las Vegas Aces are shooting 35.1 percent from beyond the arc and 82.4 percent from the free throw line. The Las Vegas Aces are allowing 34.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 33.5 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury need a win to have any real chance of winning this series. The Mercury have won 15 of their last 26 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 82.8 points on 43.3 percent shooting and allowing 79 points on 41.8 percent shooting. Satou Sabally is averaging 18.1 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas is averaging 17.2 points and 8.3 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and DeWanna Bonner is grabbing 6.1 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 34 percent from beyond the arc and 78.4 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 28.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.7 rebounds per game.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The home team has won each of the Mercury’s last five WNBA Finals games.
• The Aces have lost four of their last five road playoff games.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road playoff games.

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last eight road games against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last seven day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Mercury’s last eight home day games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four WNBA Finals games have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper has hit 3+ three-pointers in two consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 1+ blocks and 1+ steals in three consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 27 games – team’s equal-longest streak since 2021.
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).

Mercury vs Aces Injury Report

The Aces don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Mercury vs Aces Prediction

The Aces and the free points are hard to turn down given the success they’ve had over the last two months and the way this series has played out. The Aces have won 8 of the last 10 games against the Mercury overall. With that said, I had the Mercury winning this series from the start and have been backing them a lot heading into the playoffs, I kind of have to stay on the ship.

This is a must-win if the Mercury want any chance of lifting the trophy. The Mercury have seen 18 of their 32 wins come at home, and AT is kind of due for a breakout game after subpar showings in the first two efforts. Again, the value is with the Aces, but I don’t expect the Mercury to go down quietly. I’ll lay the points.