Cubs vs Padres Prediction 4/6/25 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs meet Sunday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Padres prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cubs vs Padres pick.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The Padres got off to a hot start this year, rolling through their first series versus the Atlanta Braves with wins 7-4, 4-3, 1-0 and 5-0 for a sweep. San Diego kept it going versus the Cleveland Guardians in their next set, posting three straight wins 7-2, 7-0 and 5-2 for another sweep. In their Friday opener versus the Cubs however, the Padres ended up taking their first loss 3-1. San Diego out-hit Chicago 6-3, with Fernando Tatis and Jackson Merrill each getting two of those six. Martin Maldonado had the lone RBI with a solo home run.

In Saturday’s game two, the Padres couldn’t get anything going on eight team hits, falling behind early in an eventual loss 7-1. Tatis had the team’s lone RBI, while both Elias Diaz and Luis Arraez had two hits apiece. Starting pitcher Nick Pivetta had a rough outing on 3.0 innings, three earned, six hits and three walks.

For the starter gig in the finale Sunday, the Padres will roll out Kyle Hart. This year over his first start, Hart notched a win with two earned runs in 5.0 innings. Over his MLB career, Hart is 1-1 with an 11.81 ERA in five games (four starts) and 16.0 frames total.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they posted a couple of losses to the Los Angeles Dodgers over in Japan earlier this month, then managed to split a four-game series versus the Arizona Diamondbacks as the season really got going. Next up were the Oakland Athletics, and Chicago took care of business in that one with a sweep. The wins came 18-3, 7-4 and 10-2 in a nice offensive display. In their two-run win over San Diego on Friday, the Cubs got one RBI each from Justin Turner and Nico Hoerner. Starter Shota Imanaga went 7.1 frames with one earned on four hits and no walks alongside four Ks.

On Saturday the Cubs scored twice in the second inning and three times in the sixth on the way to the blowout victory. Chicago’s Carson Kelly (four RBI; two hits) and Dansby Swanson (two runs; two hits) each had a home run in the win. Matthew Boyd did well in the start with 6.0 clean innings, five hits and a walk alongside five strikeouts.

It’ll be Ben Brown in the starting role for the Cubs on Sunday. So far Brown has two games and one start under his belt this year. He’s got a 1-1 record and a 5.87 ERA over 7.2 innings total. In his career, Brown is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 17 games (nine starts).

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The home team has won each of the Padres’ last 10 games.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games against NL Central opponents.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last seven games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 15 games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 17 of their last 20 games as road underdogs against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 17 of their last 20 home games against the Padres following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last three road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Cubs’ last 10 games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight Sunday day games.

Cubs vs Padres Prediction

I’m going to lean toward the Cubs, but you could make a case either way. This one’s really going to depend on how the starters do. Brown managed a win over the A’s on March 31, but he did get punched up a little bit with three earned on six hits and two walks in 5.0 innings. Prior to that he gave up two earned in 2.2 innings during a loss to the Dodgers back on March 18. As for Hart, he did pretty well in his win over Cleveland on March 31, with 5.0 innings, two earned, five hits and one walk.

The Cubs did a great job on both sides of the ball in Saturday’s win. Every batter got on base at least once (the eight walks helped with that), and the bullpen pitched well—outside of a shaky inning from Nate Pearson. All things considered, I like Chicago to keep it going in the finale but San Diego should look better this time.