Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 8/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 28th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 60-73 this year after they lost the first three games in this series by scores of 3-4, 0-5, and 2-3. In their game three loss, Baltimore led 2-1 in the ninth inning, but couldn’t convert the save and ended with the loss. The Orioles recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Beavers and Carlson, who both had one RBI in the loss. Baltimore started Enns, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 2.2 innings, while Akin picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles lost three out of four against the Astros, but did win both games against the Red Sox before that. Baltimore has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.68 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .261 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 572 runs with a .240 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 15 home runs and 49 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 59 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cade Povich, who is 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 86.0 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 74-60 this season after they won game three in this series by a score of 3-2 on Wednesday night. Boston led 1-0 in the first inning, but didn’t score again until the ninth, when the scored twice for the win. The Red Sox recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Rafaela, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Boston started Bello, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.2 innings, while Weissert picked up the win and Chapman got the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox won three out of four against the Yankees, but did lose both games against the Orioles before that. Boston has won six of their last seven games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 665 runs with a .252 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 21 home runs and 83 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 14-5 with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 166.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Red Sox

• The Orioles have won eight of their last nine Thursday games as home underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 15 games as favorites against the Orioles following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 17 of the Orioles’ last 19 games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in each of their last three day games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against the Red Sox.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Orioles

• The road team has won each of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Orioles.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last four home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites against the Orioles have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Orioles’ last seven day games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Red Sox’s last six day games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Noda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in four of his last six home appearances.
• Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston has won the first three games in this series and they are looking to complete a rare four game sweep here. The Red Sox are 33-35 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 31-36 at home. Baltimore has only scored eight runs in their last four games and they are facing Crochet, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Boston is going against Povich, who has allowed 4, 3, 1, and 4 earned runs in his last four outings. I think Boston is going to generate plenty of base runners in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baltimore wake up and score a few, so I like the over here.