Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction 10/1/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, October 1st at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are down 0-1 in this series after they lost game one by a score of 3-1 on Tuesday night. New York blew a 1-0 lead in the seventh inning, but they had bases loaded with no outs in the ninth, before getting shut down for the loss. The Yankees recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Volpe, who went 2-3 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. New York started Fried, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 6.1 innings, while Weaver picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees won all three against the Orioles and all three against the White Sox. New York has won eight of their last nine games and they finished second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff had a 3.91 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 849 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage in the regular season. Aaron Judge led New York with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger added 29 home runs and 98 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Carlos Rodon, who is 18-9 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 195.1 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are up 1-0 in this series and are looking to advance after they won game one by a score of 3-1 last night. Boston stranded quite a few runners early in the game, but they took the lead in the seventh and barely hung on in the ninth for the victory. The Red Sox recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Yoshida, who went 1-2 with two RBIs in the win. Boston started Crochet, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.2 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the four out save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Boston has won five of their last seven games and they finished third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while their offense scored 786 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage during the regular season. Trevor Story led Boston with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, while Alex Bregman added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 166.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Red Sox

• The Yankees have won each of their last 10 Wednesday games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six Wednesday games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Wednesday games against the Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Yankees’ last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Red Sox and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last five Wednesday playoff games as favorites.
• Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in six of his last seven home appearances.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 Wednesday night appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances against the Yankees.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (324).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1414).

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was able to control the late innings in game one on Tuesday to grab a 1-0 series win, while the Yankees have to be disappointed with how the ninth inning played out. The Red Sox are 42-40 on the road this season, while the Yankees are 50-32 at home. New York had the highest scoring offense in the MLB this year and they will face Bello, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five starts. Boston is going against Rodon, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. I expect the Yankees to bounce back in this matchup and I really like how Rodon is pitching, so give me New York -1.5 here.