Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction 3/7/26 NHL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Saturday, March 7th at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 27-25-11 this year after they lost to the Rangers by a score of 6-2 in their last game. Toronto led 2-1 in the second period, but they allowed the last five goals for the blowout loss. The Maple Leafs out shot New York by a total of 32-24, won 53.6% of the face-offs, and went 0-1 on the power play in the game. Toronto got goals from Cowan and Maccelli, while Woll stopped 18 out of 23 shots, which was a .783 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Toronto lost to the Devils by a score of 4-3 and the Flyers by a score of 3-2. The Maple Leafs have lost six games in a row and they are currently seventh in the Atlantic standings with 65 points. Toronto has scored 3.16 goals per game and they have allowed 3.46 goals against per game, while also going 19.7% on the power play and 83.0% on the penalty kill this season. William Nylander has led Toronto with 21 goals and 37 assists, while Auston Matthews has added 26 goals and 26 assists. The projected starting goalie for Toronto is Anthony Stolarz, who is 7-8-3 with a 3.37 goals against average and an .891 save percentage this year. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 38-18-4 this season after they lost to the Jets by a score of 4-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay cut the deficit to 2-1 in the third period, but they allowed two more goals to seal the loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 30-27, won 44.3% of the face-offs, and went 1-2 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay got their lone goal from Point, while Vasilevskiy stopped 26 out of 29 shots, which was an .897 save percentage. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay lost to the Wild by a score of 5-1 and the Sabres by a score of 6-2. The Lightning have lost four games in a row and they are currently first in the Atlantic standings with 80 points. Tampa Bay has scored 3.45 goals per game and they have allowed 2.67 goals against per game, while also going 21.8% on the power play and 83.2% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led TB with 32 goals and 64 assists, while Jake Guentzel has added 26 goals and 39 assists. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 28-10-3 with a 2.28 goals against average and a .914 save percentage this season. 

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win

• The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games as road favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Lightning’s last four games.
• The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last four road games.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Lightning have won six of their last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven home games.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in five of their last six road games against the Maple Leafs following a road loss.
• The Lightning have won the third period in seven of their last eight games when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight Saturday games as underdogs have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Eight of the Lightning’s last nine games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight home games.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last six Saturday games.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

• Auston Matthews has recorded at least one assist in each of the Maple Leafs’ last four games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Auston Matthews has scored at least one goal in each of the Maple Leafs’ last six home games against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight of his last nine appearances against the Maple Leafs.
• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in five of the Lightning’s last six road games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction 

Toronto limps into this matchup on a long losing streak and they have scored two goals or fewer in four of their last five games. The Maple Leafs are 16-10-7 at home this year, while the Lightning are 19-8-4 on the road. Tampa Bay has lost four in a row and they have allowed 20 goals during that four game stretch. The Lightning are barely holding onto first place in the Atlantic, but they should be fine against this lifeless Toronto team and I expect a bounce back performance. Take the Lightning -1.5 here.