Braves vs Phillies Prediction 9/5/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, September 5^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 79-62 record this season and are sitting in 2nd place in the NL East. They have a 38-31 home record and are coming off a 2-5 home loss against the Braves. They will face the Astros and the Braves next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .242 batting average this season, .313 OBP, and .400 slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Bryce Harper is the Phillies’ best hitter with a .273 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 83, adding a team-high 40 home runs.

Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, with an 11-5 record, 3.31 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have an 84-57 record this season and are sitting in 1st place in the NL East. They have a 36-33 road record and are coming off a 5-2 road win against the Phillies. They will face the Rays and the Phillies next.

The Atlanta Braves have a .249 batting average this season, .312 OBP, and .412 slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the Braves’ best hitter with a .294 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 80, adding a team-high 37 home runs.

Martin Perez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, with an 8-8 record, 3.05 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 11-5      ERA: 3.31
• Home Record: 4-2
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last six home games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have lost five of their last six road games following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five games as favorites against NL opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Saturday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez      Record this season: 8-8      ERA: 3.05
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Phillies: 3-0

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL opponents following a loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Phillies’ last 10 home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Braves’ last five games as underdogs against the Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Braves’ last 10 games against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Zack Wheeler’s last four home appearances as a starter against the Braves.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three home games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last five Saturday appearances in night games with the Phillies as favorites.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 22 appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (168) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Michael Harris has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four night games.
• Martin Perez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against the Phillies.
• Martin Perez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last eight road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Drake Baldwin has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 13 night games.
• Matt Olson ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (37) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1380).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Braves rank 29th in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Braves rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (537).

Braves vs Phillies Prediction

The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Phillies and have won their last five visits in Philadelphia.

In this Braves vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -155 home favorites. I like the Phillies in a bounce-back spot today with Zack Wheeler on the mound, with his 3.31 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. He is the far better pitching option in this game than Martin Perez, who has given up 3+ runs in three of his last four road starts. The Phillies are looking to close the 5-game gap between them and the Braves for the first place of the NL East and I trust them to do so with Wheeler on the mound after a loss yesterday. Take the Phillies to win.