Michigan State vs Louisville Prediction 3/21/26 College Basketball Picks Today

The Louisville Cardinals and the Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday in NCAA Tournament Second Round college basketball action from KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Here’s a Michigan State vs. Louisville prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs. Louisville pick.

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

Through their first 20 games this year, the Cardinals held a 14-6 overall record. Louisville beat SMU, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, NC State and Baylor in the five games after that, then took a 1-3 run. Those losses were versus SMU, North Carolina and Clemson. After three more wins over Syracuse, Miami and SMU, the Cards lost to Miami in the conference tourney and then took out South Florida in the First Round of the national tournament.

In the Thursday First Round matchup versus South Florida, the Cardinals jumped out to a 10-point lead by the end of the first half. Louisville was outscored 52-46 the rest of the way but had enough of a cushion to power out an 83-79 victory in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Isaac McKneely with 23 points, three boards and two assists. Ryan Conwell added 18 points with four boards and six assists in 37 minutes.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

Over on the Michigan State side, they opened up on a 12-2 overall run, then hit a seven-game win streak that stretched from January 2 to January 27. The Spartans would then lose three of the next four outings versus Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, then beat UCLA, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers. Losses to Michigan and UCLA came in the next pair, but Michigan State took out North Dakota State pretty easily.

Matched up against North Dakota State in First Round national tournament action on Thursday, the Spartans were looking pretty good at halftime with a 45-25 advantage. Michigan State cruised from there on a 47-42 run and moved on thanks to a 92-67 victory in the end. Topping the scorers was Carson Cooper with 20 points and 10 boards for a double-double, while Coen Carr added 17 points with four rebounds.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won each of its last six NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed.
• Louisville has lost nine of its last 10 day games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Michigan State has won the first half in each of its last 10 games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last six day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last three March games as a top-15 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Louisville has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisville’s last six NCAA Tournament games against Top 8 seeds has produced a total of 146 or fewer points.
• Ten of Michigan State’s last 11 NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (28.4).
• Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (58.5%).
• Louisville ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (11.9).
• Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.7).

Michigan State vs Louisville Prediction

I’ll stick with Michigan State. The Spartans breezed past North Dakota State in their First Round matchup, hitting a very nice 58.9 percent from the field with 50 percent (10-of-20) from outside and 88.9 percent (16-of-18) from the line. The 34-19 rebounding advantage and 44-34 edge in the paint helped as well, but the Spartans did have 12 turnovers. Michigan State has scored 80 or more points in four straight games, but they’ve also given up 87 or more points in three of those.

As for Louisville, they shot 53.8 percent from the field and 52 percent (13-of-25) from 3-point range in their win over South Florida but only hit 14-of-25 (56 percent) from the line and had a whopping 20 turnovers for 24 Bulls points. Fortunately the Cardinals held USF to just 39 percent shooting and 15.2 percent (5 of 33) from outside. That makes 73 or more points in four of the last five games for Louisville (a 4-1 run) so we should have a pretty healthy total in this one.