New Mexico Lobos (0-2) vs. Auburn Tigers (1-1)
September 14, 2024 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Auburn Tigers -27.5 / New Mexico Lobos +27.5; Over/Under: +59
(Get latest betting odds)
The New Mexico Lobos and the Auburn Tigers will meet Saturday in college football action from Jordan-Hare. Here’s an Auburn vs New Mexico prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best Auburn vs New Mexico pick.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The Lobos opened up versus Montana State back on August 24. New Mexico gave up 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and lost a tough one 35-31. QB Devon Dampier had 172 yards and one TD. Luke Wysong led the receivers with six catches for 95 yards.
In game two versus Arizona, New Mexico took another loss. The Lobos scored in every quarter but also allowed the same thing on defense during a 61-39 defeat. Dampier threw for 260 yards, three scores, and two picks while also leading the rush on 130 yards and two more scores.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
Over on the Auburn side, their first game of the year was a pretty easy one versus Alabama A&M. The Tigers scored 28 first-quarter points in an eventual blowout win 73-3. Payton Thorne threw for 322 yards and four scores. Malcolm Simmons topped the receivers on three catches for 91 yards and a TD.
In their game two matchup against California, Auburn could only score in the first and final quarters during a 21-14 defeat. Thorne had a rough day through the air with 165 pass yards, one TD, and four picks. Jarquez Hunter led the rush on 12 carries for 68 yards. Auburn will face Arkansas following this game.
Why the Auburn Tigers will win
- New Mexico has lost each of its last nine away games when playing with a rest advantage.
- Auburn has won 17 of its last 18 September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine away games when playing with a rest advantage.
- Auburn has won the first quarter in 27 of its last 36 games against non-conference opponents at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- Auburn has won the first half in 32 of its last 40 games against non-conference opponents at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- Auburn has lost three of its last four games as a favorite.
- The underdog has won four of Auburn’s last six games.
- Auburn has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- Auburn has lost the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Auburn’s last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of New Mexico’s last four road games in September has gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Auburn ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Auburn ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (17.5).
- New Mexico ranks T21st among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (12.0).
- New Mexico ranks T29th among FBS teams for H1 points per game this season (24.0).
Auburn vs New Mexico Prediction
I might take a stab at New Mexico. Sure, the Lobos had a tough loss in their opener and a blowout in game two. That said, New Mexico’s offense moved the ball pretty well against a good Arizona team. The Lobos ended up with 471 yards (211 rushing) and 30 first downs. The tradeoff was giving up 627 yards (422 passing) on the other side, though.
As for Auburn, on Saturday they repeatedly shot themselves in the proverbial foot on offense, resulting in 286 total yards (165 passing), 16 first downs, and a whopping five turnovers (four interceptions). The Tigers should look better here, but I think New Mexico can eke out the cover if all goes well.
