LSU Tigers (6-3) vs. Florida Gators (4-5)
November 16, 2024 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Florida Gators +4.5 / LSU Tigers -4.5; Over/Under: +56.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The LSU Tigers and Florida Gators meet Saturday in week 12 college football action at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here’s a Florida vs LSU Prediction. This article will include a Florida vs LSU Pick.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
The LSU Tigers lost to Texas A&M and Alabama, and they play Vanderbilt next. LSU has split its last 6 road games. Garrett Nussmeier is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,866 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Karen Lacy and Aaron Anderson have combined for 1,338 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Mason Taylor has 43 receptions.
The LSU Tigers ground game is averaging 114 yards per contest, and Caden Durham leads the way with 460 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, LSU is allowing 24.9 points and 367.2 yards per game. Whit Weeks leads the LSU Tigers with 89 tackles, Bradyn Swinson has 8 sacks and Zy Alexander has 2 interceptions.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
The Florida Gators lost to Georgia and Texas, and they play Ole Miss next. The Florida Gators have won 7 of their last 11 home games. DJ Lagway is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,071 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike have combined for 1,083 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Eugene Wilson III has 19 receptions.
The Florida Gators ground game is averaging 151.1 yards per contest, and Jadan Baugh leads the way with 411 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Florida is allowing 27.6 points and 401.3 yards per game. Trikweze Bridges leads the Florida Gators with 45 tackles, Tyreak Sapp has 3.5 sacks and Devin Moore has 2 interceptions.
Why the Florida Gators will win
- The underdog has won each of LSU’s last three games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
- LSU has lost four of its last five road games in November.
- Florida has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
- LSU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Florida has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of Florida’s last 13 games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of LSU’s last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Florida ranks T126th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.1).
- Florida ranks T120th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (3.3).
- LSU ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (322.8).
- LSU ranks 11th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (48.4).
Florida vs LSU Prediction
This line is a bit nuts when you consider LSU has gotten smoked in its last two games and the defense cant defend a mobile quarterback whatsoever. The Florida Gators have been a lot more competitive over the last month, and that includes giving Georgia a scare with a lot of backup players. The fact DJ Lagway warmed up against Texas tells me there’s a good chance he’ll be able to play this week. If that’s the case, this is a game the Gators have a real shot to win outright. LSU is not scaring anybody in its current form. This is a chance to improve Florida’s odds to clinch a bowl berth. I’ll grab the points with the Gators and even put something on the ML.
