South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
December 31, 2024 3:00 pm EDT
The Line: Illinois Fighting Illini +9.5 / South Carolina Gamecocks -9.5; Over/Under: 48
(Get latest betting odds)
The South Carolina Gamecocks and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Tuesday in Citrus Bowl college football action from Camping World Stadium. Here’s an Illinois vs South Carolina prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs South Carolina pick.
South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Preview
This year the Gamecocks posted a shaky 3-3 start, taking losses to LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama along the way. South Carolina has since won six straight though, dispatching Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Wofford and Clemson in that time.
Matched up against Clemson on November 30, the Gamecocks were down 14-7 going into the final quarter. South Carolina scored 10 unanswered points from there to take a comeback win 17-14. QB LaNorris Sellers passed for 164 yards and led the rush on 166 yards with two ground scores.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Over on the Illinois side, they won six of their first seven over Eastern Illinois, Kansas, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan. The Illini would fall to Oregon and Minnesota before three more wins over Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern.
In the regular season finale versus Northwestern on November 30, the Illini held a 14-10 edge in the locker room. Illinois scored another 24 points in the second during a 38-28 win. QB Luke Altmyer threw for 170 yards, one TD and two picks, but Aidan Laughery did most of the scoring on 172 yards and three rush touchdowns.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- The underdog has won three of South Carolina’s last four Bowl games.
- South Carolina has lost four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
- The underdog has covered the spread in seven of South Carolina’s last eight Bowl games.
- South Carolina has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
- Illinois has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
- Illinois has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Why the South Carolina Gamecocks will win
- South Carolina has won each of its last 12 games as a favorite.
- Illinois has lost each of its last six games at neutral venues.
- Illinois has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in December.
- South Carolina has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
- South Carolina has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- South Carolina has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Illinois’ last six games as an underdog against top-15 AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of South Carolina’s last five games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks 27th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (89.1).
- Illinois ranks 30th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (4.3).
- South Carolina ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (31.8).
- South Carolina ranks 5th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.6).
Illinois vs South Carolina Prediction
I’m going with South Carolina here but I wouldn’t mind seeing a thinner line. It’ll be a fun game regardless, though. The Gamecocks have been very impressive during this six-game win streak; they’ve taken out three ranked teams along the way while holding opponents to 14 or fewer points four times. One of those times was against Clemson in their last outing, as South Carolina powered through three turnovers and a tepid 164 passing yards to get the three-point win.
As for Illinois, they didn’t play great football in their last game against a struggling Northwestern squad. The Illini put up just 14 first downs and 170 passing yards, but did notch four takeaways on defense. Illinois has given up a combined 59 points in their last two outings, but they’ve scored an even 38 themselves in each of the last three. I don’t think the Illini will be able to move the ball so well against that South Carolina defense however, so I like the Gamecocks cover-wise here. Should be a good one to watch, though.
