SMU vs Virginia Prediction Football Picks Today 10/17/26

In this article we will formulate a SMU vs Virginia prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 17th at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 4-1 (2-1) this season after they defeated Boston College by a score of 25-16 in their last game. SMU led 13-10 at halftime and they scored the first 12 points in the second half to pull away with the win. The Mustangs were out gained by a total of 322-218, went 7-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Kevin Jennings threw for 160 yards and two touchdowns, while Jalen Cooper caught five passes for 45 yards. Kendrick Raphael rushed 15 times for 45 yards and one score in the win. 

Prior to that game, SMU defeated Missouri State by a score of 34-24, but lost to Louisville by a score of 41-31 before that. The Mustangs have scored 34.6 points per game with 341.0 passing yards and 138.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.0 points against per game this season. Kevin Jennings has thrown for 1,588 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while Kendrick Raphael has rushed 77 times for 418 yards and six scores this season. 

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers are 4-2 (2-1) this year after they defeated Syracuse by a score of 28-25 in their last game. Virginia trailed 17-7 at halftime, but they scored 21 points in the second half for the comeback win. The Cavaliers were out gained by a total of 430-282, went 3-10 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at zero in the game. Beau Pribula threw for 113 yards and one touchdown, while Da’Shawn Martin caught two passes for 42 yards and one score. Jekail Middlebrook rushed 17 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns in the win. 

Prior to that game, Virginia lost to Florida State by a score of 38-7, but did defeat Delaware by a score of 42-3 before that. The Cavaliers have scored 32.8 points per game with 216.5 passing yards and 162.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.2 points against per game this season. Beau Pribula has thrown for 1,074 yards with 13 touchdowns and one interception this year. 

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won each of its last 15 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
• Virginia has lost 24 of its last 31 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
• The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 21 games as a favorite in Texas.
• SMU has won the first quarter in six of its last seven October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Virginia has won each of its last four games as an underdog.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last seven October games as an underdog.
• SMU has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an AP-ranked team.
• Virginia has won the first quarter in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has won the first half in three of Virginia’s last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of SMU’s last six games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Virginia’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Kevin Jennings ranks 8th amongst qualified players for passer rating (183.7) this season.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Brandyn Hillman ranks T4th amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.6).
• SMU ranks 2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+13.2).
• Virginia ranks T3rd among FBS teams for sacks this season (21.0).
• Virginia ranks 5th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.7).

SMU vs Virginia Prediction 

SMU comes into this matchup with just one loss on the season, but they struggled to pull away from BC in their last game. Virginia is 4-2 on the year and did lose their last road game against Florida State. The Cavaliers don’t pass the ball very well, but they have a great rushing attack. I think SMU has the better defense, but I don’t love their offense and Jennings has occasional turnover issues. Take the points with Virginia in this one.