South Alabama vs Texas State Prediction 11-29-24 College Football Picks

The Texas State Bobcats and the South Alabama Jaguars will meet Friday in college football action from Hancock Whitney Stadium. Here’s a South Alabama vs Texas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best South Alabama vs Texas State pick.

Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview

Texas State managed a 4-2 run over their first six games, beating Lamar, UTSA, Troy, and Arkansas State. The Bobcats would lose to Old Dominion and Louisiana in the next pair before wins versus LA-Monroe and Southern Miss.

Matched up against Georgia State on Saturday, the Bobcats held strong early but ended up surrendering 38 first-half points in an eventual 52-44 defeat. Jordan McCloud threw for 302 yards, three scores, and two picks. Leading receiver Jaden Williams added seven catches for 91 yards.

South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview

Over on the South Alabama side, they went just 2-4 in their first half-dozen outings with losses to North Texas, Ohio, LSU, and Arkansas State. The Jags hit a 3-1 run in the next four though, beating Troy, LA-Monroe, and Louisiana in that time.

In last weekend’s game versus Southern Miss, the Jaguars were down 8-0 early but stormed back with 28 points across the second and third quarters during a 35-14 win. Gio Lopez had 193 pass yards with three touchdowns, while Fluff Bothwell led the rush on six carries for 104 yards and a TD.

Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win

• Texas State has lost 15 of its last 18 road games in November.
• South Alabama has won four of its last five games.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Texas State and South Alabama.
• Texas State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• South Alabama has lost each of its last six games as a home underdog.
• The road team has won each of South Alabama’s last three games.
• South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas State has covered the spread in three of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Texas State’s last eight November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of South Alabama’s last five games as an underdog has gone UNDER the total points line.

South Alabama vs Texas State Prediction

I’ll lean toward South Alabama. The Jaguars put together a nice win over Southern Miss in their last outing despite holding the ball for just 21:12 and posting an ugly 3-of-10 success rate on third downs. South Alabama has gotten their offense clicking pretty well overall across the last five games, with 24 or more points in each of those (a 4-1 run).

As for Texas State, they put up 459 yards (302 passing) in their loss to Georgia State but hamstrung themselves with four turnovers and a 3-of-13 effort on third-down conversions. The defense gave up 504 yards (219 rushing) on the other side. The Bobcats have put up 38 or more points in three straight games themselves, so this one’s looking like a high total if both teams are on point. I like the Jags a little better on the home cover/win, though.