Sam Houston State Bearkats (2-10) vs. Troy Trojans (0-0)
September 5, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Troy Trojans -16.5 / Sam Houston State Bearkats 16.5; Over/Under: 54.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Sam Houston Bearkats and Troy Trojans meet Saturday in college football action at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Here’s a Troy vs Sam Houston State Prediction. This article will include a Troy vs Sam Houston State Pick.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview
Sam Houston won just two games last season and enters year two under coach Phil Longo. The good news for Sam Houston is it rebounded from three wins in 2023 to 10 wins in 2024, so maybe the trend continues.
Sam Houston was awful offensively last season, but there’s experience at QB with the return of Landyn Locke. Chris Reed and Grady O’Neill return as the top receivers, and Landan Brown is back after leading the Bearkats in rushing yards. The defense has to improve as well, and that starts with safety Tyler Bailey and defensive lineman Dylan Frazier. Sam Houston has nowhere to go but up given what we saw a season ago.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
Troy doubled its win total to eight victories last season and enters year three under coach Gerad Parker. Troy has made a bowl appearance in three of the last four seasons.
Goose Crowder returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,327 yards and 11 touchdowns, and there’s a solid 1-2 punch at running back in Jordan Lovett and Gavin Griffin. The offensive line has question marks due to the roster turnover, but this could be a successful group if Crowder grows at QB. Defensively, there are similar issues with a ton of new faces, but Donnie Smith returns after 11 sacks and 44 tackles, making him arguably the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. He’s the sort of player who can wreck games by himself. Troy is bringing in decent recruits and has nice building blocks. This is a program heading in the right direction.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Troy has won each of its last 10 games as a favorite against teams from Texas.
- Sam Houston State has lost seven of its last eight road games.
- Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 road games.
- Troy has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
- Troy has won the first half in each of its last seven games as a home favorite against teams from Texas.
Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win
- Troy has lost three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- Sam Houston State has won three of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Troy has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
- Sam Houston State has covered the spread in three of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Troy has lost the first half in four of its last five games against teams from Texas.
- The road team has won the first quarter in each of Sam Houston State’s last three games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Troy’s last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Sam Houston State’s last six September games as an underdog has gone OVER the total points line.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Donnie Smith ranked T9th amongst FBS players for sacks (11.0) last season.
Sam Houston State Bearkats Player Prop Facts
- Landan Brown ranked 1st in Conference USA amongst qualified players for catch rate (86.0%) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Troy ranked 130th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game last season (98.0).
- Troy ranked 129th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (3.2).
- Sam Houston State has suffered the most equal-margin road losses by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team last season (6).
- Sam Houston State had the worst single-game yard differential in a win last season (157-474 vs Oregon State in Week 11).
Troy vs Sam Houston State Prediction
Sam Houston has some showing and proving to do, and with nothing else to go off of, I’m not jumping on board. You have to show me something. Troy has a solid team that could make a run in the Sun Belt. Troy can run the ball and has one of the best defensive players in the conference. If Troy is as respectable as I think it is, this should be a comfortable win. Sam Houston did nothing last season that makes me want to get behind this squad. I’ll lay the points with the Trojans.
