UCF vs Houston Prediction Football Picks Today 11/7/25

The Houston Cougars and UCF Knights meet Friday in college football action at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Here’s a UCF vs Houston Prediction. This article will include a UCF vs Houston Pick.

Houston Cougars Betting Preview

The Houston Cougars beat Arizona State, lost to West Virginia, and they play TCU next. The Houston Cougars have won 7 of their last 9 games. Conner Weigman is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,890 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Amare Thomas and Tanner Koziol have combined for 1,138 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Stephon Johnson has 13 receptions.

The Houston Cougars ground game is averaging 161.3 yards per contest, and Dean Connors leads the way with 657 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 21.6 points and 338.8 yards per game. Jalen Garner leads the Houston Cougars with 58 tackles, Eddie Walls III has 5.5 sacks and C.J. Douglas has 1 interception.

UCF Knights Betting Preview

The UCF Knights beat West Virginia, lost to Baylor, and they play Texas Tech next. UCF has lost 4 of its last 5 games. Tayven Jackson is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,334 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Duane Thomas Jr. and DJ Black have combined for 647 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Dylan Wade has 23 receptions.

The UCF Knights ground game is averaging 191.4 yards per contest, and Myles Montgomery leads the way with 572 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, UCF is allowing 18.8 points and 307.8 yards per game. Cole Kozlowski leads the UCF Knights with 50 tackles, Malachi Lawrence has 6 sacks and Jayden McDonald has 1 interception.

Why the UCF Knights will win

• The favorite has won each of UCF’s last eight games.
• Houston has lost seven of its last eight games in November.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of UCF’s last four games at Acrisure Bounce House.
• Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UCF has won the first half in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
• UCF has won the first quarter in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.

Why the Houston Cougars will win

• The underdog has won each of Houston’s last three games.
• UCF has lost seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
• UCF has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in November.
• Houston has covered the spread in four of its last five road games.
• UCF has lost the first half in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Houston’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of UCF’s last six home games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.

UCF Knights Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Cameron Fancher has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (72).

Houston Cougars Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Dean Connors leads the Big 12 Conference for rush attempts (148) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• UCF ranks 11th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (161.4).
• UCF ranks T14th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.6).
• Houston ranks T6th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.8).
• Houston is one of only nine FBS teams undefeated in road games this season (4-0).

UCF vs Houston Prediction

Houston is the better team with the more balanced offense, but I’m going to side with UCF at home in this toss up. UCF has the better defense with an elite pass defense, which is going to limit a Houston offense that already has issues throwing the ball. This is also pretty much a must win game for UCF if it’s going to become bowl eligible. This has a chance to be an ugly game, but UCF at home with a top-20 total defense, it’s a game the Knights can win. Toss up spot. Give me UCF.