Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 7/5/2021

The Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets meet in MLB action from Citi Field on Monday night.

The Milwaukee Brewers will lookto rebound from a 2-0 loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. Willy Adames had a double while Jackie Bradley Jr., Avisail Garcia and Tyrone Taylor each had a base hit as the Brew Crew mustered up just four hits as a team in the losing effort. Freddy Peralta took the loss, falling to 7-3 on the year after allowing two runs on three hits while striking out seven over six innings of work. Brandon Woodruff will start here and is 7-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 119 strikeouts this season. In his career, Woodruff is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 13 strikeouts against the Mets.

The New York Mets will look to build some steam after splitting Sunday’s doubleheader with the Yankees, taking game one by a count of 10-5 before dropping game two 4-2. Game one saw Brandon Nimmo post three RBIs while Francisco Lindor and Jose Peraza each had two RBIs with Peraza adding a double and Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso each had a solo home run. Marcus Stroman allowed three runs in five innings of work, while Jeurys Familia got the win in relief to improve to 3-1 on the year. Game two saw Alonso add another home run, belting a two-run shot as the lone scoring that the Mets would plate in the loss while Dominic Smith had a double and James McCann added a base hit as well as the Mets had just three hits as a team in the loss. Corey Oswalt ended up with the loss in relief to fall to 1-1 on the year as a result. Tylor McGill will start here and is 0-0 with a 4.82 ERA and 12 strikeouts this season. This will be Mcgill’s first career start against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 games against the NL East while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite. New York is 5-1 in their last 6 games against the NL Central and 18-7 in their last 25 home games while the under is 25-10-2 in their last 37 home games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

I get why the Mets and the lus money are worth a look as they split Sunday’s Subway Series double dip with the Yankees, but I’m still not eager to back Tylor McGill even at home with plus money. The Brewers fell flat on Sunday, but they’re the better team and have one of the league’s best pitchers going on Monday in Brandon Woodruff and if Woodruff can hold his own, I like the Brewers’ chances to get us a win here.