Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 6-16-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, June 16th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series. 

Orioles Looking for Another Series Win 

The Baltimore Orioles are 46-24 this year and they have won seven of their last nine games. Baltimore lost game one in this series on Friday, but they did win game two by a score of 6-2. Prior to this series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Braves, swept the Rays in four games, and split four games with the Blue Jays. Baltimore is 12-5 in their last 17 games and they are second in the AL East, 2.5 games behind New York. 

The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .217 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 356 runs with a .249 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .275 with 21 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Orioles this season. Baltimore has allowed two runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. 

Phillies are Slumping 

The Philadelphia Phillies are 47-23 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Philadelphia won the first game in this series by a score of 5-3 on Friday, but they dropped game two on Saturday. Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Red Sox, split two games with the Mets, and swept the Brewers in three games. Philadelphia has been excellent so far this season and I don’t expect this slump to last very long. The Phillies are currently leading the NL East by eight games over the Braves. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.10 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .224 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 352 runs with a .252 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .276 with 15 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is third in team ERA so far this year and they have allowed three runs or fewer in ten of their last 15 games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Corbin Burnes, who is 7-2 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 86.2 innings pitched this year. Burnes has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts and has allowed a total of one earned run in his last three outings (21.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 87.2 innings pitched this season. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three starts (20.0 IP). 

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

The Orioles have won 10 of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents following a win.
The Phillies have lost four of their last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against the Phillies following a win.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

The Phillies have won five of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
The Orioles have lost five of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games following a home win.
The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the last 12 games between the Phillies and Orioles.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
The Orioles have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Six of the Phillies’ last seven day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last four day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last three day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

These are two of the top teams in the MLB so far this season, but Baltimore is playing the better baseball currently. The Orioles are 24-14 at home this year, while Philadelphia is 20-13 on the road. Both teams are top four in the MLB in runs scored and team ERA, so this should be another solid matchup. Both of these starting pitchers have been amazing this season, but it won’t be easy to navigate each of these lineups. I know Burnes and Wheeler have been outstanding, but I think we see some runs in this series finale. My Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for this game to go over the total.