Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Friday, March 28th at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 0-1 this year after they lost to Baltimore by a score of 12-2 in game one of the series. Toronto allowed the first six runs in the game and never recovered in the loss. The Blue Jays got their two runs in the fourth inning on a home run from Gimenez, but they only had four hits in the game. Toronto started Jose Berrios in game one, but he allowed nine hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings of work. Barnes came out of the bullpen and allowed two earned runs, Green allowed one earned run, and Rodriguez allowed three earned runs to cap off the rough pitching day. 

Last year, the Toronto pitching staff had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays’ offense scored 671 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on-base percentage last season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led Toronto with a .323 batting average, 30 home runs, and 103 RBIs in the 2024 season. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, who was 14-11 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 181.0 innings pitched last year. The Blue Jays will meet the Nats and Mets after this series.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 1-0 this season after they erupted for 12 runs in game one of this series for a 12-2 win. Baltimore jumped out to an early 1-0 lead in the first inning on a Rutschman homer, and they scored the first six runs of the game. Rutschman went 3-5 with two home runs and three RBIs in the game, while Mullins added two home runs and five RBIs. Baltimore started Eflin, who allowed two hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings pitched. The Orioles bullpen pitched three clean innings with Dominguez, Akin, and Baker. 

Last season, the Baltimore pitching staff had a 3.94 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense scored 786 runs with a .250 batting average and a .315 on-base percentage last year. Anthony Santander led Baltimore with 44 home runs in 2024, but he is no longer with the team, while Gunnar Henderson hit .281 with 37 home runs and 92 RBIs for the Orioles last year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Charlie Morton, who went 8-10 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 165.1 innings pitched for the Braves last season. 

Why the Blue Jays will beat the Orioles

• The Blue Jays have won nine of their last 10 night games at Rogers Centre following a home loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last four night games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in three of their last four night games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Orioles will beat the Blue Jays

• The underdogs have won each of the Orioles’ last six games.
• The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Blue Jays’ last seven night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last seven Friday games at Rogers Centre.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Blue Jays’ last three games as favorites against the Orioles.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a Double in four of the Blue Jays’ last five games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded five or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 16 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against the Orioles.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 14 night games.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL opponents.
• Daulton Varsho has scored at least one run in six of his last seven home appearances.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Cedric Mullins has hit at least one home run in each of the Orioles’ last two games against AL opponents.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
• Cedric Mullins has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Orioles’ last nine games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• Charlie Morton has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 25 appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Ramon Laureano has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Ramon Laureano has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Charlie Morton has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction 

Baltimore was able to start the season with a 12-run performance on Thursday afternoon, and they will look to continue that hot start against Gausman here. Toronto is hoping for a bounce-back performance in this spot, and they should be able to find success against Charlie Morton, who wasn’t great last season with Atlanta. I do think this Toronto lineup is much better than they showed in game one of the series, but I also think Gausman is going to struggle against this Baltimore lineup. Take the over in this game.