Baltimore Orioles (20-11) vs. Cincinnati Reds (16-15)
May 3, 2024 6:10 pm EDT
The Line: Cincinnati Reds +100 / Baltimore Orioles -120; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 3rd at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Reds are Struggling
The Cincinnati Reds are 16-15 this year and they have lost five of their last seven games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against San Diego, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against Texas and split a four game series with Philadelphia. Cincinnati is currently third in the NL Central, as they are trailing the Brewers and the Cubs.
The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 150 runs with a .218 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .280 with eight home runs and 19 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati is tied for 10th in runs scored this season and they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last seven games. The pitching staff has been decent to start the season, but they have allowed 12 runs in their last two games.
Orioles Leading the AL East
The Baltimore Orioles are 20-11 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Baltimore is coming off of a series win against the Yankees, where they won three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Orioles lost two out of three to Oakland and won two out of three against the Angels. Baltimore is currently leading the AL East standings, but the Yankees are right behind them, with the Red Sox also in pursuit.
The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a .228 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 164 runs with a .250 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .272 with 10 home runs and 24 RBI’s for the Orioles this year. Baltimore has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight games and their offense is second in the MLB in runs scored this year.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this year. Greene has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts, but has allowed 10 earned runs combined in the other two outings. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cole Irvin, who is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 28.1 innings pitched this season. Irvin has allowed two earned runs and 14 hits over his last 18.1 innings.
Cincinnati Reds Team Facts
- The Reds have won five of their last six games as home underdogs following a loss.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
Baltimore Orioles Team Facts
- The Orioles have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last four games as road favorites against National League opponents.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last six games as road favorites against National League opponents.
Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Baltimore comes into this matchup with one of the best records in the MLB and they are 8-4 on the road this year. The Orioles have a very solid offensive attack and their pitching has been on fire recently. Cincinnati is 9-7 at home and this will be their first game back after a road trip. The Reds have done a good job of scoring runs this year, but their batting average is a little low. Hunter Greene can be really good when he is on for the Reds, but he has trouble staying consistent. For the Orioles, Cole Irvin has had three very good starts, but I don’t really believe he can continue that pace. This pitching matchup is a little bit of an unknown, so I am going to take the better offensive team. My Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles prediction is for the Orioles to win.
