Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 7-31-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 31st at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.

Reds Try to Sustain Offense 

The Cincinnati Reds are 52-55 this season and they have won five of their last seven games. Cincinnati has won the first two games in this series by scores of 7-1 and 6-3. Prior to this series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Rays, won both games against the Braves, and lost all three against the Nationals. Cincinnati is 5-6 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 473 runs with a .230 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .262 with 18 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored at least four runs in 12 of their last 17 games. 

Cubs are Last in the Central 

The Chicago Cubs are 51-58 this year and they have lost five of their last seven games. Chicago has dropped the first two games in this series and they have scored just four runs in two games. Prior to this series, the Cubs won two out of three against the Royals, lost two out of three against the Brewers, and lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks. Chicago is 5-9 in their last 14 games and they are last in the NL Central. 

The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Cubs offense has scored 444 runs with a .232 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Seiya Suzuki is batting .268 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Cubs this season. Chicago has allowed at least four runs in four of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 91.1 innings pitched this year. Lodolo has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Kyle Hendricks, who is 2-9 with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 80.1 innings pitched this season. Hendricks has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts (10.0 IP). 

Why the Reds will beat the Cubs

• The Cubs have lost each of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have won each of their last four games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last four games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against the Cubs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last eight games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last three games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games as home favorites.
• Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in eight of the Reds’ last nine games against NL Central opponents.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Reds as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Jonathan India has scored at least one run in each of the Reds’ last five night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his eight previous appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against NL opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (55) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one Double in three of the Cubs’ last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Patrick Wisdom has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Cubs as underdogs.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Ian Happ has scored a run in four of the Cubs’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Hendricks has recorded four or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Madrigal has recorded at least one total base in each of his seven previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Reds.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cincinnati Reds rank 1st in the league for steals this season (156).
• The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (806).
• The Chicago Cubs rank 26th in the league for batting average this season (.232).
• The Chicago Cubs rank T5th in the league for walks this season (364).

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this matchup just three games below .500 and they are fourth in the NL Central, but they are just three games behind the Pirates and Cardinals. The Reds have played well over the last week and they are starting Nick Lodolo, who has struggled a little recently, but has been mostly good this season. Chicago is going with Kyle Hendricks, who has an ERA just under seven and is tough to trust. Hendricks has been ok at home, but he has been dominated on the road in two of his last three road starts. My Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction is for the Reds to get the win.