Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction 7/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 4th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 49-39 this year after they lost game one by a score of 1-17 on Friday afternoon. Chicago allowed the first 17 runs in the game and never had a chance in the ugly loss. The Cubs recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bregman, who went 2-4 with one RBI. Peterson allowed nine hits and 10 earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while Wilson allowed seven earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Chicago swept the Padres in three games and won two out of three against the Brewers. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.38 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while they have scored 449 runs with a .245 batting average and a .339 on base percentage. Dansby Swanson has led the Cubs with 16 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Ian Happ has added 17 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Shota Imanaga, who is 5-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 98.1 innings pitched this year. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 46-39 this season after they won game one by a score of 17-1 on Friday. St. Louis took a 3-0 lead in the second inning and never looked back in the easy win. The Cardinals recorded 17 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Burleson, who went 2-5 with four RBIs. Pallante allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 5.2 innings for the win, while Rajcic allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, St. Louis won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Marlins before that. 

This season, St. Louis has a 4.19 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 396 runs with a .248 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Jordan Walker has led the Cardinals with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Alec Burleson has added 14 home runs and 62 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Kyle Leahy, who is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 81.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last six home games against the Cardinals following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have lost five of their last six road games against the Cubs following a road win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last five games against the Cardinals following a loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 games after playing the previous day.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games at Wrigley Field.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 home games following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the Cardinals’ last 11 games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cubs’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Cardinals’ last 10 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of Shota Imanaga’s last nine home appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Cardinals’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against the Cardinals.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his 10 previous home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 15 home games.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Leahy has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances.
• Lars Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Saturday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nathan Church has hit a home run in three of the Cardinals’ last four games.
• Ivan Herrera ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (391).
• The Cubs rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (135).
• The Cardinals rank T3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (653).
• The Cardinals rank 28th in the league for strikeouts this season (635).

Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction

Chicago finally had their winning streak snapped on Friday in game one of this series and they have allowed 7+ runs in two of their last three games. The Cubs are 26-18 at home this year, while the Cardinals are 23-18 on the road. St. Louis has won four of their last five games and they have scored 28 runs in their last two. The Cardinals are starting Leahy, who has allowed one earned run in his last 11.1 innings, while Imanaga has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. Take the Cubs to bounce back with a win here.