Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 5/25/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 25^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 27-26 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 13-13 home record and are coming off a 4-1 road win against the Blue Jays. They will face the Twins and the Astros next.

The Pirates have a .249 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .386 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 34, while Brandon Lowe adds a team-high 13 home runs.

Carmen Mlodzinski (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 4-3 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 29-24 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. They have a 11-13 away record and are coming off a 5-8 home defeat against the Astros. They will face the Cardinals and the Athletics next.

The Cubs have a .238 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .255 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 31. Ian Happ adds a team-high 10 home runs.

Ben Brown (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 1-2 record, 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: May 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski      Record this season: 4-3      ERA: 3.96
• Home Record: 3-0
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last seven games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won seven of the Cubs’ last eight games.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 day games following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in six of their last eight day games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ben Brown      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 2.09
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last nine road games against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six home games against the Cubs following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Pirates’ last six home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Cubs’ last six games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Pirates’ last 11 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last five road games against National League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last six day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 10+ Stolen Bases this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Pirates.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks T10th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (459).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (494).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (243).
• The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.336).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Pirates but lost their only previous series this season by 1-2 wins in Chicago. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -120 road favorites. The Cubs have been the worst team in baseball in the past 9 days, having lost all of their 8 games played in that span and they are an auto-fade at this point, especially on the road. Ben Brown is coming off his worst start of the season for the Cubs while Mlodzinski has given up just two runs in his last two starts for the Pirates, so I will fade the Cubs once again and take the Pirates at home for plus money.