MLB Home Run Derby
July 14, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
In this article, we will formulate a Home Run Derby Prediction on Monday, July 14th at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the participants and my MLB Home Run Derby Prediction.
Home Run Derby Format
The format for the Home Run Derby is similar to how it has been in the past. In the first round, all eight contestants will compete against each other, with the top four advancing. If there is a tie in the first round, the player that hit the longest home run during the round advances. In the semifinals, the top four are seeded and it is treated like a bracket, with one vs four and two vs three. If there is a tie in the semifinals, there will be a 60 second swing off. Once we have a winner in each semifinal matchup, those two players will compete for the championship.
Last Season’s Derby
In the 2024 Home Run Derby, the eight contestants and their first round results were:
Bohm (21) over Witt Jr. (20)
Hernandez (19) over Garcia (19)
Ramirez (21) over Alonso (12)
Ozuna (16) over Henderson (11)
Teoscar Hernandez defeated Alec Bohm in the semifinals, while Bobby Witt Jr. defeated Jose Ramirez in the second semifinal. In the championship round, Hernandez defeated Witt Jr. by a total of 14-13 to win the crown.
MLB Home Run Derby Contestants
James Wood +400
James Wood of the Washington Nationals has 24 home runs this season, which is 8th in the MLB. This is obviously his first appearance in the MLB Home Run Derby and while he does have a ton of power, his usage of all fields might work against him.
Cal Raleigh +255
Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners has 38 home runs so far this year, which is leading the MLB. Raleigh is having an unbelievable season and he is a catcher, which makes this offensive output even more impressive. I am worried that he will fade in the later rounds of the Derby, but he has a ton of momentum coming into it.
Oneil Cruz +320
Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates has 16 home runs this season, which tied for 41st in the MLB. Cruz has proven he can hit the ball very hard, but he doesn’t consistently hit home runs. I think he will put on a great show, but I don’t know if he has enough to win three rounds.
Matt Olson +650
Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves has 17 home runs this year, which 29th in the MLB. Olson is from Atlanta and obviously plays for the Braves, so the crowd will be behind him. We have seen the home field advantage negatively impact some players in the past, but I think Olson has a great shot to win.
Brent Rooker +700
Brent Rooker of the Athletics has 20 home runs so far this season, which is 17th in the MLB. Rooker will be an interesting watch, as he has 11 home runs over 400 feet this year and is on pace for another 30 home run campaign. Rooker also comes into this contest with plenty of confidence and enthusiasm, which is very important.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. +1000
Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees has 17 home runs this year, which is 29th in the MLB. Chisholm has never been a huge power hitter and his size definitely works against him in a competition like this, but he is red hot right now and loves to pull the ball.
Byron Buxton +850
Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins has 21 home runs this year, which is 12th in the MLB. Buxton has hit a 479 foot home run this year and he ranks highly in a lot of power metrics. He is one of the older contestants, but he is the same age as last year’s winner.
Junior Caminero +1000
Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays has 23 home runs so far this season, which is 9th in the MLB. Caminero has had an outstanding first half of the season and he has a shot at hitting 40 home runs this year, but I don’t know if he has the rhythm to keep the ball at the right angle to make a run here.
Home Run Derby Prediction
I always enjoy watching the Home Run Derby and it provides plenty of entertainment, but keep in mind that events like these are very unpredictable. It’s easy to pick one or two of the favorites and hope to win that way, but I like going with a bigger underdog to try and find value. The two that I really like are Olson and Rooker, so I will probably play both of them, but if I had to pick one, I would go with Rooker. I think Rooker has the right mindset coming into this Derby and I like his swing, so I will take him at +700.
