Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 6/16/25 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet Monday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Marlins vs Phillies Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Mick Abel for the start here, and Abel is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. This will be Abel’s first career start against the Marlins. The Miami Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara for the start here, and Alcantara is 3-7 with a 7.14 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Phillies, Alcantara is 0-3 with a 5.86 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to build on their 11-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays from Sunday’s series finale to sit at 42-29 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will head home for a series against the New York Mets.

Phillies Win Four In A Row

Nick Castellanos has 75 hits with 17 doubles, including 7 home runs and 36 RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber has 64 hits with a team-high 22 home runs and 52 RBIs, but also has a team-high 82 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 8 stolen bases, 13 doubles, 9 home runs, and 34 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 85 hits with a team-high 19 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 14 doubles and Bryson Stott has 6 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers, and 27 RBIs, while Stott also has 11 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have won each of their last seven Monday games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight Monday road games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Marlins.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in three of the Phillies’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Kepler has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last five games.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL opponents.
• Trea Turner ranks 4th in the league in Hits (85) this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins will be out to build on their 3-1 win over the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 28-41 on the year. After this series, the Marlins take on the Atlanta Braves in a divisional set at home.

Marlins Win Three In A Row

Xavier Edwards has 60 hits, including 6 doubles and a team-high 11 stolen bases, while Eric Wagaman has 60 hits with 14 doubles. Otto Lopez has 47 hits with 7 doubles and 6 home runs with 24 RBIs, and Matt Mervis has 7 home runs and 14 RBIs so far this year. Kyle Stowers has 62 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, and 33 RBIs, but also has 73 strikeouts, while Mervis has 50 K’s as well so far this season.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won four of the Marlins’ last five games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in each of the Marlins’ last three home games against NL East opponents.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last 14 games as underdogs.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded two RBIs in four of the Marlins’ last five home games against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has scored at least one run in four of the Marlins’ last five home games against NL East opponents.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in 18 of his last 21 home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies in this one. I just can’t buy into Sandy Alcantara yet after two strong starts against the Rockies and Pirates, of all teams. The Phillies are coming off of a strong series against the Blue Jays in a sweep at home. It’s not often you’re going to get the Phillies with a reasonable price attached, but that’s the Sandy Alcantara effect on this matchup. Give me the Phillies in this one.