Mets vs Cubs Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action at Citi Field. Here’s a Mets vs Cubs Prediction. This article will include a Mets vs Cubs Pick.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 23-17 on the year and play the Marlins, White Sox, and Marlins next. The Chicago Cubs are batting .256 on the season, have a .334 OBP, and a .443 slugging percentage. The Chicago Cubs pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Ian Happ leads the Chicago Cubs with 43 hits and 19 RBI, while Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have combined for 84 hits and 59 RBI.

Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs, and he is 3-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. This will be Boyd’s second career game against the New York Mets.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 25-15 on the year and play the Pirates, Yankees, and Red Sox next. The New York Mets are batting .252 on the season, have a .332 OBP, and a .428 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Francisco Lindor leads the New York Mets with 47 hits and 25 RBI, while Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have combined for 85 hits and 53 RBI.

Griffin Canning gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. This will be Canning’s second career game against the Chicago Cubs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL East opponents.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Cubs and Mets.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against the Cubs at Citi Field following a home loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Mets following a road win.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Double in three of the Mets’ last four day games.
• Griffin Canning has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Mets’ last five home games against NL Central opponents.
• Griffin Canning has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Single in each of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Brett Baty has hit at least one home run in each of his last three home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.438) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded a Single in each of the Cubs’ last four games at Citi Field.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in seven of the Cubs’ last eight road games against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 road games against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs and Mets have kind of cooled off over the last week, and this has a chance to be a pitching duel on Mother’s Day. Boyd has a top-20 ERA and has allowed a combined 12 earned runs in his last 34.1 innings. Canning has allowed 17 hits and two runs in his last 15 innings, and he has a 1.80 ERA and .237 allowed batting average in 15 home innings. Canning has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. These are two strong pitchers on the mound and an early start time that could lead to some sluggish bats. I’m leaning toward the under in this spot.