Pirates vs Braves Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 11th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 13-27 this year, and they have split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 2-3. In their game two loss, Pittsburgh trailed 2-0 early in the game, but they were able to tie the game in the eighth, before losing in the 11th. The Pirates recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bart and Gorski, who both had one RBI in the loss. Pittsburgh started Heaney, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Shugart was tagged with the loss in extras. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates were swept in three games by the Cardinals and Padres. Pittsburgh has lost eight of its last nine games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 123 runs with a .218 batting average and a .299 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added five home runs and 19 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP over 30.2 innings pitched this year. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 19-20 this season after they won game two by a score of 3-2 on Saturday afternoon. Atlanta led 2-0 in the third inning, but they blew the lead in the eighth, before getting the win in the 11th. The Braves recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Olson and Harris II, who both had RBIs in the win. Atlanta started Smith-Shawver, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 5.2 innings, while Blewett pitched the final two innings and picked up the win. 

Prior to this series, the Braves won three out of four against the Reds, but did lose two out of three against the Dodgers before that. Atlanta has won five of their last seven games, and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 154 runs with a .237 batting average and a .311 on-base percentage this year. Austin Riley has led Atlanta with eight home runs and 25 RBIs, while Sean Murphy has added seven home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Chris Sale, who is 1-3 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 42.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Braves will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have won five of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games following a loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Sunday games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Pirates’ last 11 games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Braves’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last seven Sunday games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jack Suwinski has hit a home run in four of his 10 previous home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against NL East opponents.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one Single in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Braves.
• Oneil Cruz has scored a run in four of his five previous appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit at least one home run in four of the Braves’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one Double in three of the Braves’ last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last seven road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his three previous road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Matt Olson has scored at least one run in eight of the Braves’ last nine road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Pirates vs Braves Prediction 

Pittsburgh continued its losing ways with another loss on Saturday, but its pitching staff has looked solid in three of its last four games. The Pirates are starting Mlodzinski, who has allowed two earned runs in two straight starts but has failed to go five innings in each of those outings. Atlanta is just 7-14 on the road this year, but they have played better over the last two weeks. The Braves are starting Sale, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. I don’t trust this Pittsburgh offense at all, so I will take the Braves -1.5 here.