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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 5-11-24 Picks

Philadelphia Phillies (26-12) vs. Miami Marlins (10-29)
May 11, 2024 4:10 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins +110 / Philadelphia Phillies -130; Over/Under: -
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies played a pair of games versus the Toronto Blue Jays this week. Philadelphia won in a blowout Tuesday then took a 5-3 defeat in game two. On Friday in the opener versus the Marlins, the Phillies powered out an 8-2 win with three runs in the fourth inning. Ranger Suarez lasted 7.0 innings in the start with three hits, two walks, nine Ks and zero earned.

In the starting pitcher role for the Phillies on Saturday it’ll be Taijuan Walker. Walker is 2-0 with a 6.39 ERA and 11 Ks in 12.2 innings over two starts this year. Walker has a career record of 71-56 with a 4.00 ERA in 200 games (196 starts).

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they had an early-week series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miami faltered in that one, losing all three games for a sweep. On Friday versus Philly, the Marlins were out-hit 15-5 and committed two errors. Trevor Rogers gave up four earned in 3.1 innings on nine hits and two walks as starter.

Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the Marlins on Saturday. This year Luzardo is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 27 strikeouts.

Phillies vs Marlins Injury Notes

Marlins SP Edward Cabrera was removed from his start Tuesday versus the Dodgers due to discomfort in his right biceps.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

  • The home team has won eight of the Marlins’ last 10 games.
  • The Phillies have lost each of their last three day games against the Marlins following a win.
  • The Marlins have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Phillies following a home loss.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against the Marlins following a win.
  • The Marlins have won the first inning in each of their last three day games at LoanDepot Park.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

  • The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Marlins have lost each of their last nine games against NL East opponents.
  • The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a loss.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five road games against National League opponents.
  • The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

I’ll probably just stay with Philly here. Also probably not going near this one. Walker has one good start and one bad start on his resume so far, but both were wins. Walker started with six earned on eight hits and two walks in 6.1 frames versus the Padres. On May 5 versus the Giants, Walker was better with three earned on five hits and a walk. If all goes well he’ll continue to improve on Saturday.

In the Friday matchup the Phillies had a nice offensive effort, especially in the early innings. Philadelphia got multiple hits from five different batters, enhancing a great outing by Suarez. I like the team to keep it going into the weekend.

Andrew's Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -130

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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