Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7/28/26 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet Tuesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Aaron Nola for the start here and Nola is 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA and 112 strikeouts this season. Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins and is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 110 strikeouts this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to shake off an 8-7 loss at the hands of Miami on Monday to sit at 57-50 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Phillies Drop 5 Of Last 6

Going into Monday, Kyle Schwarber has 96 hits with 12 doubles, 33 home runs and 62 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 106 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 47 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 72 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 22 RBIs. Trea Turner has 103 hits with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 41 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 94 hits with 20 doubles, 21 home runs and 61 RBIs this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Phillies on Monday to improve to 53-54 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the New York Mets.

Marlins Finally Snap Losing Streak

Entering Monday, Xavier Edwards has 112 hits with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 37 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 133 hits with 27 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers and 47 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 91 hits with 9 doubles, 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 67 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. Kyle Stowers has also chipped in 71 hits with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs and 45 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: July 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 10-6      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-3

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have lost five of their last six games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 5.82
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 night games following a road loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Marlins’ last 11 games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as favorites against the Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last eight games as home favorites.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games as road underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as favorites.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Liam Hicks has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (136) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two road games against the Marlins.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1049).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1049).

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the Marlins here. I think that the way that Miami won on Monday, in walkoff fashion, can give them some momentum heading into this matchup. Aaron Nola has been more than hittable this season, and I’m looking for Miami to keep up the offense here. Alcantara has been solid at home this season and has been one of the best arms Miami has had. I’ll side with Miami in this one.