Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals meet Sunday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the finale in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Nationals vs Cardinals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Cardinals pick.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cardinals kicked things off this season by sweeping the Minnesota Twins, then lost to the Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, and Pittsburgh Pirates in the next three sets. Series wins over the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros came next, prior to a sweep by the Mets and a set loss to the Braves. The Cardinals then took out Milwaukee in a series and tied Cincinnati. After winning two of three versus the Mets last weekend, St. Louis really got rolling this past week with a sweep over the Pirates. On Friday in their weekend series opener versus the Nationals, St. Louis posted three runs in the eighth inning alone on the way to a blowout shutout 10-0. Wilson Contreras led the offense with three RBI, two hits, and a run. Erick Fedde posted the complete game effort with 9.0 innings, six hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts.

In the Saturday game, the Cardinals scored all their runs in the second inning on the way to a 4-2 victory. Lars Nootbaar put up two RBI, and Alec Burleson had a pair of hits. Starter Andre Pallante put up 7.1 innings with two earned runs on five hits alongside seven strikeouts and no walks.

As a starter for the Sunday finale, the Cardinals are sending out Miles Mikolas. This year, Mikolas is 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in seven starts over 34.0 innings. Mikolas is 65-66 with a 4.17 ERA in 217 games (189 starts).

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have won each of their last eight Sunday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Nationals’ last four games.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last seven games.
• The Nationals have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have won the first inning in each of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last six day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Cardinals’ last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Nationals’ last eight games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last four games as road underdogs.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they kicked off the year by falling in a set to the Philadelphia Phillies and then taking a sweep courtesy of the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would bag victories in two of three over the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the next pair of series, then lost in the next pair versus the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals beat the Rockies and Orioles in the next two series, then split with the Mets ahead of defeats in two of three against the Phillies. Washington split their first two weekend games versus the Reds, then won on Sunday to take another series. The Nats split their Tuesday doubleheader against Cleveland, then lost 8-6 in the Wednesday finale. On Friday, Washington couldn’t solve Fedde and came up with just six team hits. CJ Abrams had half of those hits, and starter Mitchell Parker went 4.0 innings with four earned on seven hits and two walks.

In game two, the Nats got their only RBI from Dylan Crews and a home run. Trevor Williams went 6.0 frames in the starting role with four earned runs on seven hits and a walk.

Starter for Sunday will be MacKenzie Gore. This year, Gore is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight starts across 46.0 innings. Gore is 23-29 with a 4.11 ERA in 83 games (80 starts) overall during his MLB career.

Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Cardinals. Mikolas was a bit shaky in his last start on May 5 versus the Pirates, though, posting three earned runs on four hits and three walks in 5.0 innings during a no-decision. That said, Mikolas went 1-0 over his first pair with a combined zero earned runs in 11.1 innings on nine hits and two walks. As for Gore, he’s done pretty well over his last trio as well, even though he’s just 0-1 in that time. Gore has a combined 17.0 innings in those three with six earned runs on 13 hits and five walks total.

St. Louis had one big inning Saturday, and the pitching staff took care of the rest. I’d like to see a more spread-out offensive effort in the finale, but the Cards should be set up well.