Nationals vs Mets Prediction 4/26/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals meet Saturday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the second installment in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Nationals vs Mets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Mets pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

New York kicked off the season on a series loss versus the Houston Astros, however, next came wins in two of three against the Miami Marlins. The Mets swept the Toronto Blue Jays after that, then took another series win versus Miami. New York bagged a victory in another series versus the A’s, then fell in a series versus the Twins, ahead of a three-game sweep versus St. Louis. New York beat the Phillies 5-4 and 5-1 in their first two games of this week’s set. On Wednesday in the finale, the Mets posted a pair of runs in the bottom of the 10th inning for a comeback victory, 4-3. Brett Baty had a homer with two RBI, and starting pitcher David Peterson went 5.1 innings with two earned runs on eight hits and a walk.

In Friday’s opener versus the Nationals, New York blew a late lead on the way to a walk-off loss, 5-4. Mark Vientos put up three RBI along with his two hits, and starter Kodai Senga had 6.0 innings with two earned on six hits and two walks.

It’ll be Clay Holmes in the starter slot for the Mets on Saturday. This year Holmes is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 34 Ks in five starts over 25.2 innings. Holmes is 26-23 with a 3.67 ERA in 316 career games (nine starts).

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Washington side, they fell in their opening set of the year versus the Phillies and then got swept by the Toronto Blue Jays before taking a series victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Washington would then win another set against the Los Angeles Dodgers then lost two of three against the Miami Marlins. Following defeats in three of four against the Pirates, Washington would win a set last weekend versus the Rockies. Washington beat the Baltimore Orioles 7-0 in their opener, then on Wednesday, they kept it going with a tight win, 4-3. In Thursday’s series finale game, the Nats couldn’t finish off the sweep, posting a 2-1 loss despite giving up just four hits to the O’s offense.

On Friday in the opener versus New York, Washington posted a 13-8 advantage in hits, with Jose Tena notching three along with two RBI. Dylan Crews also had three hits with three runs. Jake Irvin lasted 7.1 frames in the starting role, giving up one earned run on five hits and a walk.

As the starting pitcher for Saturday, the Nats will go with Brad Lord. This season in his rookie campaign, Lord is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA over six games (three starts. He’s got 10 Ks in 13.1 innings total.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The home team has won each of the Mets’ last 10 games.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Nationals’ last nine games at Nationals Park.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as road favorites.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last 10 home games.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as home underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have lost eight of their last nine games against the Mets following a home win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Mets at Nationals Park following a home win.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Saturday day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Nationals’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets’ last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last eight games at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last seven games against NL East opponents.

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

I’m staying with the Mets here. Holmes is on a nice run over his last three, though he did have a bit of a spotty win over the Marlins on April 8. In that one Holmes gave up four earned on five hits and three walks in 5.1 innings but still got the W. Since then Holmes is 1-0 in two starts with a combined 11.0 innings, two earned runs, six hits and four walks to his credit. Another nice start like that will set up New York very well on Saturday. As for Lord, he’s got one spotty outing in his last three (4.1 innings; four earned in a loss versus the Pirates). In the other pair, Lord is 0-1, but he’s got better numbers with two earned over 7.0 combined innings.

The Mets took a tough-luck loss Friday, but I think they’ll bounce back in game two.