Orioles vs Royals Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks Today

The Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles meet Saturday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Royals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Royals pick.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

Kansas City opened up their campaign by losing the first two sets against the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers, then took a series win against the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City then took another set victory versus the Minnesota Twins before a set loss in the rematch against Cleveland. The Royals were able to sweep the New York Yankees, then took a loss in three of four games versus the Detroit Tigers. The Royals posted a sweep over the Rockies, then got victories in two of three versus the Astros. KC was able to beat the Rays 3-1 and 3-0 in their first two outings this past week. On Thursday, the Royals completed the sweep with an 8-2 victory.

In the Friday matchup versus Baltimore, KC was out-hit 9-4 in a 3-0 shutout loss that stopped their win streak. Michael Massey logged a pair of hits though, as did Freddy Fermin.

As a starter for Saturday’s game, the Royals will send out Kris Bubic. So far this year, Bubic is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in six starts over 36.0 innings. Bubic is 13-31 with a  4.44 ERA over his career in 103 games (66 starts) at the MLB level.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Over on the Orioles’ side, they split their first set of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays before losing a series versus the Boston Red Sox. Defeats in another pair of sets versus the Royals and Diamondbacks came after that, then a two-game split versus the Jays. Baltimore finally got a set victory versus the Guardians, then fell in two of three versus the Nationals and took a losing sweep thanks to Detroit. The O’s lost badly to the Yankees on Tuesday, 15-3, but won the other two games in that set. During the 5-4 Wednesday victory, Baltimore got a homer and two RBI from Ryan Mountcastle.

On Friday versus the Royals, Baltimore got two hits, two RBI, and a homer from Ryan O’Hearn. Starter Dean Kremer lasted 7.0 frames with no earned runs on three hits and a walk.

It’ll be Tomoyuki Sugano in the starting pitcher role for the O’s on Saturday. This year in his rookie campaign, Sugano is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts across 33.0 innings. He’s got 17 strikeouts total.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Royals have lost each of their last seven Saturday road games against American League opponents.
• The home team has won six of the Orioles’ last seven games.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won four of their last five games as road underdogs.
• The Orioles have lost nine of their last 12 games as favorites following a win.
• The Royals have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday home games against American League opponents.
• The Royals have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against American League opponents.
• The Royals have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents.
• The Royals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last five games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last four games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Royals’ last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Orioles vs Royals Prediction

I’m going to lean toward the Orioles. Sugano is having a pretty good first year, even though he’s had a bump or two along the way. Over his last three starts combined, Sugano is 2-0 with five earned runs in 19.0 innings on 15 hits and one walk. He’s coming off 5.0 clean innings with five hits and one walk in a victory versus the Yankees on April 28. As for Bubic, he’s got one good start (7.0 innings; zero earned on four hits and no walks) and two pretty rough starts (10.1 combined innings for seven earned on 12 hits and seven walks) over his last three outings. Bubic will need a bit of a bounce-back effort here if the Royals are going to pose a threat.

Baltimore had a pretty nice outing collectively on Friday. If Sugano can set the table in this one, the O’s offense should take care of the rest.