Phillies vs Cubs Prediction 4/21/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, April 21^st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 13-9 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 8-5 home record and are coming off a 5-1 home win against the Phillies. They won their previous three home games against the Mets by scores of 2-1, 4-2, and 12-4.

The Cubs have a .251 batting average this season, .342 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .322 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 21. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 6 home runs.

Shota Imanaga (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 8-14 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 3-4 away record and are coming off a 1-5 road loss against the Cubs. They dropped their previous three home games against the Braves by scores of 2-4, 1-3, and 0-9.

The Phillies have a .220 batting average this season, .301 OBP and .360 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Justin Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 14, also adding a team‑high 7 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 1-3 record, 7.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: April 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shota Imanaga      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.45
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last six games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 12 of their last 14 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 1-3      ERA: 7.94
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Cubs: 2-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won five of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost three of their last four night games following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Cubs’ last seven night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Phillies and Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded a win in six of his seven previous appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with the Cubs as home favorites.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 11 home games against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Hits (28) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit at least one home run in four of his last five Tuesday appearances against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Bryson Stott has recorded a hit in each of his last seven appearances.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (161).
• The Cubs rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.342).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.275).
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for hits allowed this season (214).

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs have won their last three meetings against the Phillies and both teams are tied 2-2 in their last four meetings in Chicago.

In this Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -118 home favorites. Both teams are coming into this matchup in opposite trajectories lately, as the Cubs are red-hot with six straight wins and the Phillies have been struggling with six straight defeats. Luzardo has been abysmal for the Phillies with 5+ earned runs in three of his four starts, while Imanaga has two earned runs in his last three starts combined. The Cubs have a superior offense and a better bullpen and they are a steal in this price. Take the Cubs on the moneyline.