Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 4th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 19-14 this season, and they have won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 7-2. In their game two win, Philadelphia scored the first seven runs in the game, and they cruised to the win. The Phillies recorded 11 hits in the game, and they were led by Realmuto, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Philadelphia started Nola, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Hernandez allowed two hits and two earned runs in one inning of relief. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Nationals and two out of three against the Cubs. Philadelphia has won six of its last seven games, and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 150 runs with a .252 batting average and a .334 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added five home runs and 16 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is coming off the IL for his first appearance of the season. 

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 17-16 this year after they dropped game two by a score of 7-2 yesterday. Arizona fell behind early in the game, and they never recovered, but they did score two runs in the seventh to avoid the shutout. The Diamondbacks recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Gurriel Jr., who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Arizona started Pfaadt, who allowed nine hits and six earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Castillo and McGough threw 3.2 scoreless innings. 

Prior to this series, the Diamondbacks won two out of three against the Mets, but did lose two out of three against the Braves before that. Arizona has lost three of its last five games, and they are currently fourth in the NL West standings. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.42 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 165 runs with a .245 batting average and a .328 on-base percentage this year. Eugenio Suarez has led Arizona with 10 home runs and 21 RBIs, while Corbin Carroll has added nine home runs and 23 RBIs this season. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 1-3 with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 32.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Diamondbacks

• The home team has won seven of the last eight games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Citizens Bank Park following a road loss.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last five road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the last seven games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight day games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Phillies’ last five day games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has recorded at least one RBI in each of his eight previous home appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in 24 of his last 25 appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last 10 home games.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Kepler has hit a home run in each of his last five home appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Phillies.
• Gabriel Moreno has scored a run in each of his last seven road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances with his team as an underdog against NL East opponents.
• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded a Double in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four road games against NL East opponents.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction 

Philadelphia was able to get another win on Saturday, and they continue to be red hot over the last few weeks. The Phillies have scored seven runs in three of their last five games, and they are 13-5 at home so far this year. Arizona is 9-8 on the road, but they have the 23rd-ranked team ERA, so their pitching staff has let them down. The Diamondbacks are starting Rodriguez, who has allowed 12 earned runs and 15 hits over his last 10.2 innings. I know Ranger Suarez is making his first start of the year, but I have to fade E-Rod here. Take the Phillies at home.