Phillies vs Mets Prediction 6/26/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, June 26^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 34-47 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 18-22 home record and are coming off a 4-3 home defeat against the Cubs. They will face the Blue Jays and the Braves next.

The Mets have a .231 batting average this season, .299 OBP and .377 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also adding a team-high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 45.

The Mets have not announced a starting pitcher for this game yet.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 45-36 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 22-17 road record and are coming off a 10-5 road win against the Nationals. They will face the Pirates and the Royals next.

The Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .302 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 7-1 record, 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Betting Trends: June 26, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 home games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last seven night games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home underdogs against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last six Friday games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against the Phillies at Citi Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 7-1      ERA: 2.11
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 14 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have won seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against the Mets.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last 10 home games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last eight night games against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Alvarez has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 15 home games against NL East opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.567) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in five of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL opponents.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 14 of his last 15 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (29) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (99).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.299).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (772).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (221).

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Mets but have lost their last three visits in New York.

In this Phillies vs Mets Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -160 road favorites. I like the Phillies in this one at home, as the Mets have been on a free fall with six consecutive losses and have 9+ earned runs in three of their last four games. Wheeler has been in excellent form and the Mets are just 27^th against right-handed pitching in the past week. Take the Phillies to win.