Pirates vs Braves Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 9th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 12-26 this season after they lost all three against the Cardinals by scores of 3-6, 1-2, and 0-5. In their game three loss, Pittsburgh allowed two runs in the third inning, which was enough in the shutout loss. The Pirates recorded just four hits in the game, and they were led by Pham, Hayes, McCutchen, and Cruz, who all had one hit in the game. Pittsburgh started Keller, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings in the loss, while Ferguson allowed two hits and two earned runs in 0.2 innings of relief. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates lost all three against the Padres and two out of three against the Cubs. Pittsburgh has lost seven games in a row, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 118 runs with a .219 batting average and a .300 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 18 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added five home runs and 19 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Bailey Falter, who is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 37.1 innings pitched this season. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 18-19 this year after they won three out of four against the Reds by scores of 4-0, 2-1, 3-4, and 5-4. In their game four win, Atlanta trailed 4-2 in the ninth, but they scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth and got the win in the 11th. The Braves recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Harris II, who went 3-5 with two RBIs in the win. Atlanta started Schwellenbach, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Iglesias allowed two earned runs in the ninth, and Blewett got the win in extras. 

Prior to that series, the Braves lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did win two out of three against the Rockies before that. Atlanta has won four of their last five games, and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 149 runs with a .240 batting average and a .312 on-base percentage this year. Austin Riley has led Atlanta with eight home runs and 25 RBIs, while Sean Murphy has added seven home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 32.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Braves will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games.
• The Braves have won four of their last five games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Braves have covered the run line in four of their last five road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Friday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Braves’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine home games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Braves’ last 11 road games against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Braves.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded three RBIs in each of his last three home appearances against the Braves.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games against NL East opponents.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Braves after not playing the previous day.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Braves.
• Oneil Cruz has scored at least one run in 11 of the Pirates’ last 12 night games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Michael Harris has hit at least one home run in each of the Braves’ last three road games against NL Central opponents.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 15 road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Matt Olson has scored at least one run in each of the Braves’ last seven road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last eight games at PNC Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.

Pirates vs Braves Prediction 

Atlanta was able to get a nice comeback win on Thursday night to stay hot in recent games, but they are just 6-13 on the road this season. The Braves have had some solid pitching in their last five games, but Elder has an elevated ERA and WHIP on the year. Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams in the MLB to start the season and they just fired their manager. The Pirates are 7-12 at home, and they are starting Falter, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. I don’t believe in this Pittsburgh offense at all, so give me the Braves here.