Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 4/30/25 MLB Picks Today

The Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Wednesday in MLB action from PNC Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Pirates vs Cubs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Cubs pick.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Chicago posted a split in four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their opening set of the 2025 campaign, then swept the Oakland Athletics before a set win against the San Diego Padres. The Cubs will take on the Texas Rangers next. After a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers came a series loss versus the Padres. Chicago won two of three during the rematch with the Diamondbacks, then beat the Dodgers in both of their games. The Cubs split their first two games with the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend, then in the rubber match, Chicago took a 3-1 loss in 10 innings despite a solid pitching performance over seven innings from starter Jameson Taillon.

On Tuesday versus Pittsburgh, the Cubs bagged 13 team hits in a blowout win, 9-0. Seiya Suzuki (three runs; two RBI) and Carson Kelly (three RBI) each had three hits and a home run. Starter Shota Imanaga finished with 5.0 clean frames, six hits, a walk, and three strikeouts.

As a starter for game two, Chicago will roll with Matthew Boyd. This year, Boyd is 2-2 with a 2.54 ERA in five starts across 28.1 innings total. Boyd is 48-71 with a 4.78 ERA in 187 career games (173 starts).

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pirates’ side, they started things out with a trio of series losses versus the Miami Marlins, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the New York Yankees. Pittsburgh got a series victory versus the St. Louis Cardinals, then faced a sweep by the Reds. Following another set win over the Washington Nationals, the Pirates were swept by the Guardians before taking a series win over the Angels. Pittsburgh split the first two games versus the Dodgers over the weekend. On Sunday, the Pirates lost the series on a 9-2 defeat, giving up four runs in the first inning alone. Starter Bailey Falter gave up five earned runs on eight hits and two walks in 4.1 innings in that one.

In Tuesday’s matchup, Pittsburgh gave up multiple runs in three different innings. Andrew Heaney left after 4.2 innings as a starter, giving up four earned runs on five hits and three walks.

In the starting pitcher slot for Wednesday, the Pirates are sending out Carmen Mlodzinski. So far in 2025, Mlodzinski is 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA over five starts and 22.0 innings in all. In his career, Mlodzinski is 9-11 with a 3.73 ERA in 80 games (10 starts).

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the last 11 games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Wednesday night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Cubs’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the last nine games between the Cubs and Pirates at PNC Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 road games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six Wednesday games.

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction

I’ll stick with the Cubs here, but I’m probably avoiding this one. The starter matchup should be interesting, though. Boyd is coming off a win over the Dodgers on April 23, posting 6.0 innings with three earned on 10 hits and a walk. In his two starts prior to that, however, Boyd went 0-2 with 11.1 innings combined for five earned runs on 10 hits and five walks. As for Mlodzinski, he’s coming off a decent outing on April 24 versus the Angels with 5.0 innings and three earned runs. Mlodzinski went 0-2 with nine earned runs in 8.1 innings on 14 hits and four walks over his two starts before that, however.

Chicago pummeled the Pirates’ pitching in the Tuesday shutout victory, posting at least one earned run against five of the six arms Pittsburgh put on the mound. Wednesday’s matchup likely won’t be so one-sided, but the Cubs should still have control. Chicago has scored four or more runs in five of the last six games, winning four of those. Another offensive effort like that and the Cubs will be in spectacular shape.