Pirates vs Mets Prediction 6/29/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, June 29th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 34-50 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-1 and 9-2. In their game two win, Pittsburgh trailed 1-0 in the first inning, but they scored nine of the last ten runs in the game for the win. The Pirates recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by McCutchen, Reynolds, and Hayes, who all had two RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Falter, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 1.2 innings, while Ashcraft picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Brewers and two out of three against the Rangers. Pittsburgh has won four of their last six games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 285 runs with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 13 home runs and 31 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added nine home runs and 44 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mike Burrows, who is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 30.1 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 48-36 this season after they lost game two by a score of 9-2 on Saturday afternoon. New York cut the deficit to 3-2 in the fifth inning, but they failed to score in the last four innings for the loss. The Mets recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Soto and Nimmo, who both had one RBI in the loss. New York started Blackburn, who allowed six hits and three earned runs over 1.0 inning for the loss, while Brazoban allowed four earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Mets split four games with the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Phillies before that. New York has lost 12 of their last 15 games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.35 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .234 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 367 runs with a .245 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 20 home runs and 47 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Frankie Montas, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Mets

• The Pirates have won each of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Mets will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have won eight of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Mets following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games.
• The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last three day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last seven games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 games at PNC Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight day games between the Mets and Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against NL opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jeff McNeil has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Frankie Montas has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Frankie Montas has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesse Winker has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Pirates.

Pirates vs Mets Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup looking to complete the series sweep with a win, as New York continues to struggle over the last two weeks. The Pirates are 22-21 at home this year, while the Mets are just 19-24 on the road. New York has allowed at least seven runs in three of their last five games and they will start Montas, who is making his second start of the season. The Pirates are starting Burrows, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. I don’t fully trust Montas in just his second start back, but this is a great spot for him against a low scoring team. Take the under here.