Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction 5/6/25 MLB Picks Today

The Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox meet Tuesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Red Sox vs Rangers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Rangers pick.

Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Rangers opened up their 2025 campaign with a series win in four games over the Red Sox, then took out the Cincinnati Reds in two of three and swept the Tampa Bay Rays. After the series losses to the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners, the Rangers swept the Los Angeles Angels. Series losses to the Oakland Athletics (twice) and San Francisco Giants came over the next three matchups, then losses to Seattle on Friday and Saturday. In Saturday’s 2-1 defeat, Texas’s Jonah Helm had the lone RBI with a pair of hits. Starter Patrick Corbin lasted 5.2 innings with one earned run on five hits and two walks alongside a pair of strikeouts.

In the Sunday finale versus the Mariners, the Rangers bagged 12 team hits and six runs in the third inning alone on the way to an 8-1 blowout victory. Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager (run) each had two hits and two RBI, while starting pitcher Jacob deGrom lasted 5.0 innings with one earned run on three hits and two walks alongside three strikeouts. Josh Smith chipped in with four hits, two runs, and an RBI as well.

For the starter gig in the Tuesday game, the Rangers are rolling with Nathan Eovaldi. This year, Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts across 42.2 innings total. Eovaldi is 93-83 with a 4.02 ERA in 301 career games (282 starts).

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox side, they were able to beat the Baltimore Orioles in a series following their opener defeat versus Texas. After a sweep versus the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston lost consecutive sets versus the Blue Jays and White Sox. The Red Sox beat Tampa Bay and the White Sox over the next two series, then lost one versus the Mariners. Following a set win over Cleveland and a set loss to Toronto, Boston split their first two weekend games with the Twins 6-1 (win) and 4-3 (loss). In the Saturday defeat, the Sox’s Rafael Devers had three hits with two RBI. Starting pitcher Hunter Dobbins had 5.2 innings with four earned runs on seven hits and two walks, along with two strikeouts.

In Sunday’s rubber match, the Red Sox had a 3-1 lead for quite some time but ended up falling 5-4 in the end. Wilyer Abreu posted three hits, two runs, and a solo homer in the defeat, while Carlos Narvaez had two RBI. Starting pitcher Garrett Crochet left after 5.0 innings with one earned run on four hits and two walks.

As the starting pitcher for Tuesday, the Red Sox will go with Lucas Giolito. After his lone start this year (a no-decision), Giolito is sitting with a 4.50 ERA in 6.0 innings of work. During his career, Giolito is 61-62 with a 4.43 ERA in 181 games (179 starts) overall.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Red Sox’s last five games.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last five games following a win.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Rangers have won each of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against AL East opponents.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Rangers’ last nine games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Rangers and Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Rangers’ last seven night games.

Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Rangers. Eovaldi should be able to put together a nice start here. He’s been doing well lately, even though he’s got just the one win in his last three outings. During that trio of starts, Eovaldi has a combined 18.0 innings with three earned runs on 14 hits and one walk. As for Giolito, he managed to go 6.0 innings in his 2025 debut versus the Blue Jays on April 30, giving up three earned runs on five hits and a pair of walks. We should have a good starter matchup here if Giolito can settle in—and if Eovaldi can maintain form.

Texas recently had a string of four straight games with one run or fewer (all losses), so they’ll need to get the offense moving as well.