Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9-23-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 23rd at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 73-83 this year and they have lost five of their last six games. Toronto is coming off of a series loss against Tampa Bay, where they lost all three games and only scored five runs in the series. Prior to that series, the Blue Jays lost two out of three against the Rangers, swept the Cardinals, and lost two out of three against the Mets. Toronto is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 652 runs with a .242 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .327 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 78-78 this season and they have split their last four games. Boston is coming off of a series win against Minnesota, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Rays, lost three out of four against the Yankees, and won two out of three against the Orioles. Boston is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are tied for third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 734 runs with a .253 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .285 with 21 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Tanner Houck, who is 8-10 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 173.2 innings pitched this season. Houck has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 10-13 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 166.2 innings pitched this year. Bassitt has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Blue Jays

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one Single in each of the Blue Jays’ last nine night games.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 28 games against AL East opponents.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one total base in each of the Blue Jays’ last 28 games against AL East opponents.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Daulton Varsho has scored at least one run in six of his last seven home appearances.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances at Rogers Centre against opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one total base in 14 of his last 15 appearances at Rogers Centre against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• Rafael Devers has scored a run in four of the Red Sox’s last five games at Rogers Centre.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as road underdogs.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this series clinging to life in the AL Wild Card chase, but they have no room for error and pretty much need to win every single game in the last week. The Red Sox are 41-37 on the road this season, while the Blue Jays are 38-37 at home. Toronto is coming off of a very rough offensive series against the Rays and they will face Tanner Houck, who has been decent this season. The Jays will start Chris Bassitt, who has some elevated numbers on the season and has been inconsistent recently. Boston was able to pick up two wins against the Twins on Sunday and I think that will give them some momentum here. I also would rather trust Houck over Bassitt, so give me the Red Sox to win.