Yankees vs Rays Prediction 4/17/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees are visiting the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday, April 17^th at the George M. Steinbrenner Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Yankees vs Rays Prediction. We will examine:

The Tampa Bay Rays recent form and player performance

The New York Yankees recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tampa Bay Rays

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Yankees

Recent betting trends in games played between the Yankees vs Rays

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Yankees vs Rays game

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have an 8-10 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL East. The Rays have an 8-7 home record and are 8-9 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-1 home defeat by the Boston Red Sox and are playing the Diamondbacks and the Padres next. Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. The Rays have a .267 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .416 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Jonathan Aranda leads the Rays with 19 hits, while also leading the team with a .396 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 11.

Taj Bradley (R) will take the mound for the Rays, and he has a 2-0 record, 3.71 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In his two starts against the Yankees last season, he looked amazing with just one earned run in 13 innings of work.

New York Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees have a 11-7 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL East. The Yankees have a 3-3 road record and are 10-7 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 road victory over the Kansas City Royals, sweeping that series with 3-0 wins, and are playing the Guardians and the Blue Jays next. The Yankees have a .258 batting average this season, .343 OBP and .485 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 27 hits, 21 RBI and 7 home runs, as he also has a team-high .409 batting average.

Will Warren (R) will take the mound for the Yankees, and he has a 1-0 record, 5.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has allowed at least two runs in each of his three starts this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Yankees have lost each of their last seven road games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have won each of their last eight Thursday night games.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last nine Thursday night games.
• The Yankees have lost the first inning in six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last eight Thursday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as road underdogs.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last four road games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Yankees’ last nine road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (42).
• The Rays rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (29).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.485).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (107).

Yankees vs Rays Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 overall meetings, and are 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Tampa. Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Yankees vs Rays Prediction, both teams are priced at even money (-110). The Yankees bounced back nicely after a cold stretch with a 3-0 series sweep over the Royals, while the Rays have been up and down this season. Taj Bradley looks sharp this season and he was amazing against the Yankees last season, so I expect him to contain their offense in this game. Both bullpens have been very good to start the season, and I don’t trust the shaky Rays’ offense to do damage on Warren, so with the total set at 9 runs, I will gladly go under the total.